000 AXPZ20 KNHC 292100 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1954 UTC Mon Jun 29 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. This system could become a short-lived tropical depression later today or tonight before moving over colder waters on Tuesday. A 1005 mb low pressure is analyzed on the surface map near 20N112W, moving NW at 7 kt. The most recent scatterometer pass indicates fresh to strong winds within 120 nm NE quadrant of the low center while a pair of altimeter passes show seas to 9 ft. A large area of seas to 9 ft in SW swell surrounds the low center. Increasing winds and seas could be expected over the offshore waters in the vicinity of the low. This low has a medium chance of tropical cyclone development during the next 48 hours. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 81W crossing Panama and extends southward to near 02N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 81W and 85W. A tropical wave is along 96W, with a 1010 mb low pressure along the wave axis near 08N96W. The wave is moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 93W and 98W. Similar convection is also seen near the low center from 06N to 08N between 95W and 97W. A tropical wave extends from 02N to 19N with axis near 136W, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed where the wave meets the ITCZ. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N83W to 08N96W to 06N106W, then resumes W of the low pressure located near 20N112W at 15N120W to 11N130W to 11N130W to 08N140W. Outside of the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection can be found from 06N to 10N between 87W and 93W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within about 120 nm S of the monsoon trough W of 128W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section regarding the low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. A trough extends across the northern part of the Gulf of California from 32N114W to 30N115W. S to SW winds in the 20 to 25 kt range are expected ahead of the trough during the next 6-12 hours with seas briefly building to 7 or 8 ft. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate onshore winds prevail along with 4-7 ft seas primarily in southerly swell. Little change is expected through the week, except in the Tehuantepec region where a gap wind event is expected Fri night through Sat night. Northerly winds will increase to 20-30 kt resulting in building seas of 7-9 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse over and downstream of the Papagayo region through Wed. These winds may assist in the development of broad low pressure by mid-week which will shift W-NW of the area toward the end of the week. Seas will build to 7-9 ft with the pulsing winds and low pressure area. Moderate to occasionally fresh monsoon flow will prevail over the waters S of 10N E of 100W through at least Wed. Long period southerly swell reach this same area helping to build seas to 8-9 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the northern forecast waters W of 120W. A set of northerly swell, with seas of 8-9 ft is propagating across the waters NW of a line from 30N122W to 24N140W. This swell event will continue to spread across the forecast area through Tue reaching the area NW of a line from 30N122W to 26N140W on Tue while gradually subsiding. Fresh to locally strong monsoonal flow is noted per scatterometer data W of 128W, likely enhanced by convection on the south side of the monsoon trough in this area. Another southerly swell event will reach the waters N of the equator and W of 120W by late Tue. Seas of 8-9 ft are forecast to dominate much of the forecast waters S of 10N between 100W and 130W by Wed night. $$ GR