000 AXPZ20 KNHC 291558 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1411 UTC Mon Jun 29 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity has re-developed in association with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. A 1005 mb low pressure is analyzed on the surface map near 19N112W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted on satellite imagery within about 120 nm E semicircle of the low center. The disturbance could still become a short-lived tropical depression later today or tonight if the thunderstorm activity becomes better organized before moving over colder waters Tuesday. Increasing winds and seas can be expected over the offshore waters in the vicinity of the low. This low has a medium chance of tropical cyclone development during the next 48 hours. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 80W/81W crossing Panama and extends southward to near the coast of NW Ecuador, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted near 07N80W. A tropical wave is along 95W/96W moving westward at around 10 kt. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is from 12N to 14N between 93W and 97W. A tropical wave extends from 02N to 19N with axis near 134W/135W, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed where the wave meets the ITCZ. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N77W to 09N100W to 1005mb low pres near 19N112W to 1006 mb low pressure near 17N116W to 12N120W to 11N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 84W and 100W, from 08N to 11N between 127W and 132W, from 06N to 10N between 132W and 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section regarding the low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California. A trough extends across the northern part of the Gulf of California from 32N114W to 30N115W. S to SW winds in the 20 to 30 kt range are expected ahead of the trough during the next 12-18 hours with seas briefly building to 8 ft. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate onshore winds prevail along with 4-7 ft seas primarily in southerly swell. Little change is expected through the week, except in the Tehuantepec region where a gap wind event is expected Fri and night. Northerly winds will increase to 20-25 kt resulting in building seas of 7-9 ft on Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse over and downstream of the Papagayo region through Wed. These winds may assist in the development of broad low pressure by mid-week which will shift W-NW of the area toward the end of the week. Seas will build to 7-9 ft with the pulsing winds and low pressure area. Moderate to occasionally fresh monsoon flow will prevail over the waters S of 10N through early week. Long period southerly swell reach this same area helping to build seas to 5-8 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the northern forecast waters W of 120W. A set of northerly swell, with seas of 8-10 ft based on recent altimeter passes, is propagating across the waters NW of a line from 30N125W to 25N140W. This swell event will continue to spread across the N waters through Tue reaching the area NW of a line from 30N120W TO 24N140W by Tue morning with seas of 8-9 ft, decaying thereafter. Moderate to fresh monsoonal flow persists south of the monsoon trough between 100W and 120W helping to support 7-9 ft seas as indicated by recent altimeter data. Long period southerly swell of 7-8 ft extends elsewhere S of 10N between 90W and 125W to the equator. $$ GR