000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280848 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Jun 28 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of California Gale Warning: Fresh to strong southerly winds will pulse in the northern Gulf of California today, with moderate to fresh in the central Gulf of California. By this evening, the winds will become more out of the SW and enhancement from nearby gaps in Baja California Norte should be enough to increase winds to minimal gale force into early Mon. Seas are forecast to build to 7-9 ft by early Mon, subsiding thereafter as winds diminish back to fresh to strong. Winds will continue to diminish through mid-week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is crossing western Panama and extends southward to 03N with axis near 82W, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N E of 86W. A tropical wave is crossing the Guatemala/Mexico border and extends southward to of 04N near 92W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 88W and 98W, from 12N to 15N between 90W and 92W, and also N of 14N between 93W and 96W, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A tropical wave extends from 03N to 20N near Cabo Corrientes with axis near 108W/109W, moving westward at around 10 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 14N between 103W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N to 18N between 104W and 110W. A tropical wave extends from 04N to 20N with axis near 118W/119W, moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 117W and 119W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N80W to 09N92W to low pressure near 16N113W to 10N119W to low pressure near 10N127W to 09N132W to 10N140W. Aside the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 120W and 125W, from 08N to 10N between 128W and 130W, and from 07N to 09N between 135W and 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the Gulf of California developing gale warning. Visibilities may be reduced in haze near the SW coast of Mexico this morning per the latest coastal observations. A broad 1007 mb low pressure area is near 16N113W. This low will continue to move W-NW away from Mexico while weakening. Another weak low may develop near 18N111W by late tonight taking a similar path to the first low. A swath of fresh to strong E-SE winds and seas of 8-11 ft will parallel the coast of Mexico through early Tue. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate onshore winds prevail. Winds offshore of SW Mexico will increase to moderate to locally fresh Mon night through Tue as the pressure gradient tightens slightly. Broad low pressure may move south of the Tehuantepec Region by mid-week bringing increasing winds and seas. Otherwise, little change is anticipated for the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse over and downstream of the Papagayo region through early week. These winds may assist in the development of of broad low pressure by mid-week which will shift W-NW of the area toward the end of the week. Seas will build to 7-9 ft with the pulsing winds and low area. Moderate to occasionally fresh monsoon flow will prevail over the waters S of 10N through early week. Long period southerly swell reach this same area helping to build seas to 6-8 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Remnant mixed swell to 8 ft from now post-tropical cyclone Boris W of 140W lingers just east of 140W, but will subside later today. A ridge axis extends from 30N140W E-SE toward the Baja California peninsula. Mainly moderate to locally fresh N-NE flow prevails between 140W and broad 1007 mb low pressure near 16N113W, along with seas of 5-7 ft. Moderate to fresh monsoonal flow persists south of the monsoon trough between 100W and 130W helping to support 7-9 ft seas. Long period southerly swell of 7-9 ft extends in this same area from south of the equator. A weak 1009 mb low pressure area is near 10N127W with moderate to fresh winds noted in the NW and SE quadrants. The low near 10N127W will continue westward through mid-week with winds and seas possibly increasing to fresh to strong and 7-9 ft in the SE quadrant by the early part of the week. A set of northerly swell will spread south of 30N later today building seas to 7-9 ft N of 27N through the early part of the week before subsiding. The long period southerly swell will subside through Mon, then a new set will arrive by Tue building seas to 7-9 ft S of 05N between 105W and 140W by mid-week. $$ Lewitsky