000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251553 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1550 UTC Thu Jun 25 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Three-E is centered near 10.8N 136.2W at 25/1500 UTC, moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm NW semicircle. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure and a tropical wave along 103W remain disorganized. However, environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and the system is likely to become a tropical depression within the next couple of days while it moves west- northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours, and a high chance of formation during the next five days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 95W, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted north of 06N within 180 nm of the wave axis. An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late this week. Gradual development of this system is possible over the weekend and into early next week as it moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. A tropical wave axis is along 103W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A 1006 mb low pressure is analyzed with this wave near 12.5N103W. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 13N within 240 nm east of the wave axis. See the Special Features section above for more details on this wave and potential tropical cyclone development. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N77W to 06N81W to 1006 mb low pressure near 12.5N103W to 16N116W to 09N140W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted north of 05N and east of 81W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 108W and 116W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail offshore of Baja California this morning between an offshore ridge and a low pressure trough that extends along the Baja peninsula. Gentle to moderate SE winds are noted east of the trough in the Gulf of California. Farther south, moderate to fresh easterly winds off the southern coast of Mexico are associated with a broad area of low pressure along a tropical wave near 103W. Wave heights are 5-7 ft in this area, and generally 4-6 ft elsewhere over the offshore waters. A trough along the Baja peninsula will support increasing winds and seas in the Gulf of California late tonight through this weekend. Winds and seas will increase off the coast of southern Mexico later this week as a couple of low pressure systems, with some potential for tropical cyclone formation, move parallel to the coast of Mexico. Please see the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook for the latest updates. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds prevail near and downstream of the Papagayo region this morning, with 6-8 ft seas. Moderate to fresh monsoonal flow persists south of the trough, where seas are generally 4-7 ft in SW swell. Strong thunderstorms south of the Gulf of Panama region are likely producing gusty winds and rough seas in the vicinity of the monsoon trough. Fresh to strong winds, along with building seas, will prevail near and downstream of the Papagayo region through Fri. Then, winds will continue pulsing to fresh to strong speeds in the Papagayo region through early next week. Moderate to fresh monsoon flow will prevail over the waters S of 10N through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on Tropical Depression Three-E, as well as the potential for additional tropical cyclone development later this week. A large area of moderate to fresh NE winds is noted between T.D. Three-E and a high pressure ridge that extends across the northern waters. Recent altimeter data suggests wave heights area 6-8 ft within these trades. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds are associated with the broad area of low pressure analyzed along a tropical wave near 103W, with seas to 8 ft. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. Cross-equatorial southerly swell, combined with freshening monsoon flow, will build seas south of the monsoon trough and east of 120W by this weekend. Seas are expected to build to 8-9 ft south of the Equator Fri night through Sun in SW swell. $$ B Reinhart