000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250300 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jun 25 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Three-E is centered near 10.6N 134.7W at 25/0300 UTC, moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of the center. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico are associated with a tropical wave near 101W. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 06N within 240 nm of the wave axis. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and the system is likely to become a tropical depression within the next few days while it moves W-NW parallel to the coast of Mexico. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 90W north of 01N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 85W and 95W. An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec later this week in association with this wave. Slow development of this system is possible over the weekend as it moves W-NW parallel to the coast of Mexico. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. A tropical wave axis is along 101W north of 01N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A 1006 mb low pressure is analyzed with this wave near 12N101W. See the Special Features section above for more details on this wave and potential tropical cyclone development. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 1006 mb low pressure near 12N101W to 16N114W to 1007 mb low pressure near 15N121W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 103W and 109W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... An offshore ridge is supporting gentle winds across much of the Baja California offshore waters, except for moderate to locally fresh winds noted in scatterometer data near Cabo San Lucas. Earlier altimeter data showed 4-6 ft seas in the waters between Cabo San Lucas and Cabo Corrientes. SE winds remain light to gentle in the Gulf of California. Farther south, a broad area of low pressure near 12N101W is evident in scatterometer winds from a tropical wave. Winds are generally moderate to locally fresh within the broad circulation associated with this feature. A trough along the Baja peninsula will support increasing winds and seas in the Gulf of California Thu night into this weekend. Brief periods of fresh to strong SE winds are possible in the northern Gulf of California Fri and Sat. Winds and seas will increase off the coast of southern Mexico later this week as a couple of low pressure systems, with some potential for tropical cyclone formation, move parallel to the coast of Mexico. Please see the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook for the latest updates. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue offshore of Costa Rica this evening, in association with a tropical wave near 90W. Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh monsoonal flow south of the trough. Light to gentle winds prevail north of the trough, except for moderate easterly flow near and downstream of the Papagayo region. Little change is noted in wave heights. Fresh to occasionally strong winds, along with building seas, are expected near and downstream of the Papagayo region for the next several days. Moderate to fresh monsoon flow will prevail over the southern offshore waters through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on Tropical Depression Three-E, as well as the potential for additional tropical cyclone development later this week. Moderate to fresh trades continue between a ridge across the northern waters and the monsoon trough. Seas are generally 5-7 ft within these trades. Scatterometer data depicts the fresh to strong winds associated with T.D. Three-E, mainly within its northern semicircle. Fresh winds are noted with an elongated low pressure area centered near 15N121W. Moderate to fresh monsoonal flow continues south of the monsoon trough E of 115W. Cross-equatorial southerly swell, combined with strengthening monsoonal flow, could create hazardous seas south of 10N and east of 110W Thu this weekend. Seas are expected to build to 8 ft south of the Equator Fri and Sat in SW swell. $$ Mundell