000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242046 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2045 UTC Wed Jun 24 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Three-E is centered near 10.6N 133.8W at 24/2100 UTC, moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm W semicircle. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico are associated with a tropical wave near 101W. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 06N within 240 nm of the wave axis. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and the system is likely to become a tropical depression within the next few days while it moves W-NW parallel to the coast of Mexico. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 89W north of 04N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 84W and 89W. An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late this week in association with this wave. Gradual development of this system will be possible over the weekend as it moves W-NW parallel to the coast of Mexico. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. A tropical wave axis is along 101W north of 06N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A 1008 mb low pressure is analyzed with this wave near 12N101W. See the Special Features section above for more details on this wave and potential tropical cyclone development. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N77W to 08N84W to 1008 mb low pressure near 12N101W to 16N113W to 1008 mb low pressure near 14.5N121W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 240 nm S of the monsoon trough E of 80W, and within 150 nm N of the monsoon trough between 90W and 94W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... An offshore high pressure ridge is supporting gentle winds across much of the Baja California offshore waters, except for moderate to locally fresh winds noted in recent scatterometer data near Cabo San Lucas. Earlier altimeter data showed 4-6 ft seas in the waters between Cabo San Lucas and Cabo Corrientes. Elsewhere, SE winds remain light to gentle in the Gulf of California. Farther south, a broad area of low pressure near 12N101W is evident in scatterometer winds along a nearby tropical wave. Winds are generally moderate to locally fresh within the broad circulation associated with this feature. A low pressure trough extending along the Baja peninsula will support increasing winds and seas in the Gulf of California Thu night into this weekend. Brief periods of fresh to strong SE winds are possible in the northern Gulf of California Fri and Sat. Winds and seas will increase off the coast of southern Mexico later this week as a couple of low pressure systems, with some potential for tropical cyclone formation, move parallel to the coast of Mexico. Please see the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook for the latest updates. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Numerous showers and thunderstorms continue offshore of Costa Rica and Panama this afternoon, in association with the passage of a tropical wave near 89W. Locally gusty winds and rough seas are expected near stronger thunderstorms. Partial scatterometer data from across the region shows moderate to locally fresh monsoonal flow south of the trough. Light to gentle winds prevail north of the trough, except for moderate easterly flow near and downstream of the Papagayo region. Little change is noted in wave heights, with a recent altimeter pass showing 4-6 ft offshore of Costa Rica, as well as between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Fresh to occasionally strong winds, along with building seas, are expected near and downstream of the Papagayo region for the next several days. Moderate to fresh monsoon flow will prevail over the southern offshore waters through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on Tropical Depression Three-E, as well as the potential for additional tropical cyclone development later this week. Moderate to locally fresh trades continue this afternoon between a high pressure ridge across the northern waters and the monsoon trough. Seas are generally 5-7 ft within these trades, possibly peaking around 8 ft near 13N139W based on recent altimeter data. Scatterometer data depicts the fresh to strong winds associated with T.D. Three-E, mainly within its northern semicircle. Some fresh winds are noted in the SE and NW quadrants of an elongated low pressure system near 14.5N121W. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next day or so while the system moves westward at about 15 mph. After that time, it is expected to move over cooler waters. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh monsoonal flow continues south of the monsoon trough E of 115W. Cross-equatorial southerly swell, combined with strengthening monsoonal flow, could create hazardous seas south of 10N and east of 110W Thu into this weekend. Seas are also expected to build to 8 ft or greater south of the Equator Fri through this weekend as SW swell crosses the region. $$ B Reinhart