000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241510 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1510 UTC Wed Jun 24 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Three-E is centered near 10.2N 132.9W at 24/1500 UTC, moving W at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm W semicircle. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico are associated with a tropical wave near 100.5W. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 07N within 180 nm of the wave axis. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and the system is likely to become a tropical depression within the next few days while it moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 88W north of 03N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 82W and 88W. An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late this week. Gradual development of this system will be possible over the weekend as it moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. A tropical wave axis is along 100.5W north of 07N, moving westward at 15 kt. A 1008 mb low pressure is analyzed with this wave near 12.5N100.5W. See the Special Features section above for more details on this wave and potential tropical cyclone development. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N77W to 06N82W to 1008 mb low pressure near 12.5N100.5W to 14N107W to 15N117W to 1008 mb low pressure near 13N122.5W to 10N132.5W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 300 nm south of the monsoon trough between 110W and 118W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge well offshore of Baja California is supporting gentle to moderate NW winds across the Baja offshore waters. Locally fresh winds may be occurring south of Los Cabos this morning. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere across much of the region. Recent altimeter passes indicate seas remain in the 4-6 ft range over the offshore waters. Offshore high pressure will weaken later this week, and winds west of Baja California are expected to diminish into this weekend. A brief period of fresh to strong southerly winds is possible Fri in the northern Gulf of California. Winds and seas will increase off the coast of southern Mexico later this week as a low pressure system, with some potential for tropical cyclone formation, moves parallel to the coast of Mexico. Please see the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook for the latest updates. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted in satellite imagery and lightning data offshore of Costa Rica and Panama, in association with the passage of a tropical wave near 88W. These storms are likely producing gusty winds and rough seas in the areas of strongest convection, south of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh gap winds are noted over and downstream of the Papagayo region this morning. Gentle to moderate SW monsoon flow persists south of the monsoon trough this morning. Wave heights are generally 4-6 ft across the region. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse near and downstream of the Papagayo region through the next several days. Moderate to fresh monsoon flow will prevail over the southern offshore waters through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on Tropical Depression Three-E and the potential for additional tropical cyclone development later this week. Moderate to occasionally fresh trades continue between a ridge across the northern waters and the monsoon trough. Stronger winds and locally higher seas are occurring near an elongated area of low pressure near 13N122.5W, which continues to produce a wide area of disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible during the next day or so while the system moves westward at about 15 mph before it moves over cooler waters. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, moderate SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough east of 105W, with 5-7 ft seas in residual SW swell. Cross-equatorial southerly swell, combined with strengthening monsoonal flow, could create hazardous seas south of 10N and east of 105W Thu into this weekend. $$ B Reinhart