000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240906 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Jun 24 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An area of low pressure is centered near 10N132W. Satellite imagery shows an organized low level circulation with convective banding developing near the circulation center. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 131W and 134W. Environmental conditions are favorable for development, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression during the next day or two as it moves westward. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles SW of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are associated with a tropical wave axis near 100W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted north of 14N, with scattered moderate isolated strong further south between 06N and 09N, near the wave axis. Environmental conditions appear favorable for development, and the system is likely to become a tropical depression in a few days as it moves W-NW, parallel to the coast of Mexico. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours, and a high chance during the next five days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 85W north of 02N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection may form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec from this wave later this week. Gradual development of this system is possible by the weekend as it moves W-NW parallel to the coast of Mexico. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 days. A tropical wave axis is along 100W north of 05N, moving westward at 15 kt. This wave remains well-defined in precipitable water imagery and wave diagnostic tools. See the Special Features section above for more information on this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 1011 mb low pressure near 12N100W to 16N114W to 1011 mb low pressure near 12N122W to to 1011 mb low pressure near 10N132W to 09N140W. In addition to the convection previously described, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 14N between 104W and 117W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge west of Baja California is supporting gentle to moderate NW winds across the offshore waters. Gentle SE winds are noted in the Gulf of California. Seas remain 4-6 ft offshore and 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. Offshore high pressure will weaken later this week, and winds west of Baja California are expected to diminish Thu through Sat. A brief period of fresh to strong southerly winds is possible Fri in the northern Gulf of California. Winds and seas will increase off the coast of southern Mexico later this week as a low pressure system, with potential for tropical cyclone formation, moves parallel to the coast of Mexico. Please see the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook for the latest updates. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted in satellite imagery west of Costa Rica and Panama, in association with the passage of a tropical wave near 85W. These storms are likely producing gusty winds and rough seas in the area of strongest convection. Gentle to moderate SW monsoon flow persists south of the monsoon trough. Seas remain 4-7 ft across the waters as cross-equatorial SW swell decays across the region. Fresh winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough through Fri. Moderate to fresh westerly winds are expected south of 10N for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on the potential for tropical cyclone development later this week. Moderate to occasionally fresh trades continue between a ridge across the northern waters and an active monsoon trough. Seas are generally 6-8 ft within the trades west of 130W, except to 10 ft near the low near 12N122W. Latest scatterometer data indicates an area of fresh W-SW winds between 116W and 122W, associated with a broad low pressure area embedded within the monsoon trough. Environmental conditions are not expected to be very conducive for further development over the next two days. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Cross-equatorial southerly swell could build seas south of 05N this weekend. Strengthening monsoonal flow will likely result in hazardous winds and seas off southern Mexico later this week. $$ Mundell