000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240305 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Jun 24 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An elongated area of low pressure, centered near 15N119W, is producing a large area of disorganized clouds, showers and thunderstorms. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 17N between 118W and 127W. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development over the next two days, but the disturbance is forecast to move over cooler waters after that time, which should inhibit further development. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. A nearly stationary area of low pressure is centered near 10N131W. Satellite imagery shows an organized low level circulation with convection starting to show evidence of some banding near the circulation center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 127W and 135W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression during the next few days while it moves slowly westward. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours, and a high chance during the next five days. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles S-SW of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are associated with a tropical wave axis near 100W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 98W and 102W. Environmental conditions appear favorable for development, and the system is likely to become a tropical depression in a few days as it moves W-NW, parallel to the coast of Mexico. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours, and a high chance during the next five days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 84W north of 02N, moving westward at 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 81W and 87W. An area of disturbed weather may form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec from this wave later this week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some development as it moves W-NW parallel to the coast of Mexico. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. A tropical wave axis is along 93W north of 06N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave axis is along 100W north of 05N, moving westward at 15 kt. This wave remains well-defined in precipitable water imagery and local wave diagnostic tools. See the Special Features section above for more information on this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 12N96W to 15N106W 16N115W to 10N122W to 1011 mb low pressure near 10N131W to 09N140W. In addition to the convection previously described, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 103W and 111W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge west of Baja California is supporting gentle to moderate NW winds across the offshore waters. Gentle SE winds are noted in the Gulf of California. Seas remain 4-6 ft offshore and 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. Offshore high pressure will weaken later this week, and winds west of Baja California are expected to diminish Thu through Sat. Winds and seas will increase off the coast of southern Mexico later this week as a low pressure system, with potential for tropical cyclone formation, moves parallel to the coast of Mexico. Please see the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook for the latest updates. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted in satellite imagery west of Costa Rica and Panama, in association with the passage of a tropical wave near 84W. These storms are likely producing gusty winds and rough seas in the area of strongest convection. Gentle to moderate SW monsoon flow persists south of the monsoon trough. Seas remain 4-7 ft across the waters as cross-equatorial SW swell decays across the region. Fresh winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough through Fri. Moderate to fresh westerly winds are expected south of 10N for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on the potential for tropical cyclone development later this week. Moderate to occasionally fresh trades continue between a ridge across the northern waters and an active monsoon trough. Recent scatterometer passes reveal an area of fresh to strong SW winds between 115W and 125W, associated with a broad low pressure area embedded within the monsoon trough. Alitimeyer data showed wave heights to 10-12 ft within this enhanced monsoon flow. Seas are generally 6-8 ft within the trades west of 130W. Cross-equatorial southerly swell could build seas south of 05N this weekend. Strengthening monsoonal flow will likely result in hazardous winds and seas off southern Mexico later this week. $$ Mundell