000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230359 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Jun 23 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tropical wave with axis along 113W/114W is embedded within a broad area of low pressure centered near 12N114W, moving westward around 15 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows large clusters of numerous moderate to strong convection from 13N to 16N between 112W-115W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 120 nm of the low in the south and southwest quadrants and within 60 nm in the northwest quadrant. Gradual development of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form during the next two to three days while the disturbance moves westward. After that time, cooler waters are likely to inhibit further development. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. An area of low pressure centered near 11N131W, or more than 1500 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become a little better organized during the past 24 hours as its overall cloud pattern has become a bit more symmetrical in appearance. Latest satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm of the low in the NE quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the low in the S and SW quadrants. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and this system could become a tropical depression during the next few days while it moves generally westward. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The southern portion of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 87W and north of 05N to across extreme northwestern Nicaragua and central Honduras. It is moving westward at about 20 kt. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted within 60 nm east of the wave from 09N to 12N. A tropical wave with axis along 95W and north of 03N to across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region is moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave is helping to sustain numerous moderate to strong convection in clusters over southeastern Mexico and the western part of Guatemala. This activity reaches to the adjacent coastal waters of Mexico. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm west of the wave from 10N to 13N and within 60 nm east of the wave from 10N to 11N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwestern Colombia westward across Panama and southern Costa Rica to 10N96W to 12N102W to a 1009 mb low near 12N114W and to 10N121W to a 1011 mb low near 11N131W and to beyond the area at 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 116W-119W and also between 122W-124W. Similar conveciton is within 60 nm south of the trough between 96W and 99W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 99W-102W and between 122W-129W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The latest surface analysis reveals high pressure continuing over the offshore waters of Baja California, while a low pressure trough remains near the Baja peninsula and the Gulf of California. Latest scatterometer data passes show gentle to moderate northerly winds over the Baja offshore waters, and recent altimeter data indicates seas remain 4-6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh northwest winds off the Baja peninsula will continue through Tue night, then diminish through late week as the offshore ridge weakens. Elsewhere, moderate southeast winds are over the central and southern Gulf of California, while moderate easterly winds continue off the southern coast of Mexico. The winds over the southern Gulf of California, including the entrance to the Gulf, will briefly become southwest to west at fresh speeds Tue night into early on Wed, then become gentle to moderate south to southwest winds through the end of the week. Looking ahead, an area of disturbed weather is forecast to form south of the coast of Mexico in a couple of days. Some development is expected to occur after that time, and the system could become a tropical depression by late this week as the disturbance moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico. Another area of disturbed weather is forecast to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late this week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system over the weekend as it moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico. Please see the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook for the latest updates. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Latest scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh northeast to east gap winds over the Papagayo region. Elsewhere, gentle south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough, with light and variable winds north of the trough. Cross-equatorial southwest swell is allowing for wave heights of 5-7 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, while combined seas elsewhere are generally 4-6 ft. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will pulse in the Papagayo Region through Thu, then significantly strengthen Thu night into Fri. Expect freshening monsoon flow Wed through late this week as broad low pressure develops offshore of southern Mexico. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on the potential for tropical cyclone development later this week. High pressure of 1025 mb centered just northwest of the area near 32N142W maintains a ridge axis across the waters north of 20N this afternoon. Moderate to fresh winds continue between this ridge and the monsoon trough, roughly from 12N to 20N west of 125W based on recent scatterometer data passes. Locally strong winds are noted near 1011 mb low pressure analyzed along the monsoon trough near 11N131W. Combined wave heights range from 6-8 ft within the area of fresh trades to 8-9 ft near the monsoon low. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh southerly flow continues south of the monsoon trough between 105W and 120W. Locally generated wind waves and SW swell are maintaining wave heights to 8 ft in this region. Southerly swell dominates much of the waters south of 15N and east of 110W. This swell will gradually decay over the next couple days. Another set of cross-equatorial southerly swell may build seas over the southern waters late this week, along with strengthening monsoon flow as broad low pressure develops offshore of southern Mexico. $$ Aguirre