000 AXPZ20 KNHC 222051 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2050 UTC Mon Jun 22 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tropical wave with axis along 111W/112W is embedded within a broad area of low pressure centered near 11.7N111.4W, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered strong convection is noted in recent satellite imagery from 12N to 15N between 111W and 114W. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is occurring from 09N to 15N within 180 nm west of the wave axis. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual additional development, and a tropical depression could form during the next two to three days while the disturbance moves westward. After that time, cooler waters are likely to inhibit further development. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. An area of low pressure centered near 11N130W, or more than 1000 miles SW of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 127W and 133W. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and this system could become a tropical depression during the next few days while it moves generally westward. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The southern portion of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W and north of 05N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 07N within 120 nm west of the wave axis. A tropical wave with an axis along 94W north of 03N is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 07N to 14N within 120 nm east of the wave axis. A tropical wave with an axis near 140W is moving westward at 10 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 07N77W to 06N84W to 13N105W to 1010 mb low pressure near 12N111.5W to 09N120W to 1010 mb low pressure near 11N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 03N to 07N east of 79W, within 240 nm south of the monsoon trough between 100W and 109W, and within 120 nm north of the monsoon trough between 120W and 126W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Recent surface analysis indicates offshore high pressure persists offshore of Baja California, while a low pressure trough remains near the Baja peninsula and the Gulf of California. Scatterometer data show gentle to moderate northerly winds over the Baja offshore waters, and recent altimeter data indicates seas remain 4-6 ft/ Moderate to locally fresh NW winds off the Baja peninsula will continue through Tue night, then diminish through late week as the offshore ridge weakens. Elsewhere, moderate SE flow is noted across the central and southern Gulf of California, while moderate easterly winds prevail off the southern coast of Mexico. Looking ahead, an area of disturbed weather is forecast to form south of the coast of Mexico in a couple of days. Development is expected to occur after that time, and the system could become a tropical depression by late this week as the disturbance moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico. Another area of disturbed weather is forecast to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late this week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system over the weekend as it moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico. Please see the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook for the latest updates. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Earlier scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh gap winds over the Papagayo region. Elsewhere, gentle S to SW monsoon flow was noted south of the monsoon trough, with light and variable winds north of the trough. Cross-equatorial SW swell maintains 5-7 ft seas between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, while combined seas elsewhere are generally 4-6 ft. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse in the Papagayo Region through Thu, then strengthen Thu night into Fri. Expect freshening monsoon flow Wed through late this week as broad low pressure develops offshore of southern Mexico. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on the potential for tropical cyclone development later this week. High pressure centered near 30N140W maintains a ridge axis across the waters north of 20N this afternoon. Moderate to fresh winds continue between this ridge and the monsoon trough, roughly from 12N to 20N west of 125W based on recent scatterometer passes. Locally strong winds are noted near 1010 mb low pressure analyzed along the monsoon trough near 11N130W. Combined seas range from 6-8 ft within the fresh trades to 8-9 ft near the monsoon low. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh southerly flow continues south of the monsoon trough between 105W and 120W. Locally generated wind waves and SW swell are maintaining seas to 8 ft in this region. Southerly swell dominates much of the waters south of 15N and east of 110W. This swell will gradually decay over the next couple days. Another set of cross-equatorial southerly swell may build seas over the southern waters late this week, along with strengthening monsoon flow as broad low pressure develops offshore of southern Mexico. $$ B Reinhart