000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220911 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Jun 22 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tropical wave with axis along 108W from 03N to 17N is moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave is embedded within a broad area of low pressure that is located several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Latest satellite imagery shows that earlier observed deep convection has decreased during the past few hours, however, new convection of the scattered moderate to isolated strong type is developing in clusters from 10N to 12N and between 108W-112W. The broad cyclonic circulation associated with this broad area of low pressure is pulling scattered moderate convection from the monsoon northward to 12N and between 106W- 108W. This convection extends south to 10N. This area of broad low pressure has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as environmental conditions are favorable for gradual additional development. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The southern portion a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W and north of 02N. It is moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm west of the wave from 03N to 06N. A tropical wave with axis along 91W north of 03N is moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave is embedded within a very moist and unstable atmospheric environment as observed in both conventional infra-red imagery as well in water vapor imagery and in the precipitable satellite animation imagery. This wave coincides well with the 700 mb northeast to southeast wind shift as portrayed in model guidance. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 180 nm east of the wave axis from 04N to 06N and within 240 nm west of the wave axis from 05N to 09N and within 60 nm east of the wave axis from 05N to 08N. A tropical wave with axis along 115W is moving westward at about 10 kt. This wave is passing through the southern periphery of a mid to upper anticyclone located near 22N116W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm west of the wave from 07N-11N. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm east of the wave from 08N-12N. A tropical wave with axis along 138W from 03N to 17N is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm east of the wave from 08N to 10N. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm east of the wave from 12N to 17N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from a 1010 mb low located over northwest Colombia near 10N75W westward to 10N86W, then west-northwest to 12N102W to 09N115W to a 1010 mb low near 12N128W and to beyond the area at 10N140W. Aside from convection described above with the tropical waves, scattered moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 99W-103W and also between 122W-125W. Similar activity is within 60 nm north of the trough between 118W-122W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm south of the trough between 129W-131W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the trough between 93W-95W and from 02N to 06N east of 79W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between a surface ridge extending to the offshore waters of Baja California peninsula and elongated low pressure over the Gulf of California will support the continuation of moderate to locally fresh northwest winds off the Baja peninsula through Wed morning. The ridge will weaken and shrink to the west for the rest of the week, which will allow for light to gentle winds to exist over these waters through Fri. Moderate to fresh southeast to south winds are expected in the Gulf of California Fri and Fri night. Light to gentle over the offshore waters from Jalisco to Oaxaca will increase to fresh speeds by Thu as a forecast area of disturbed weather passes to across the area. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh southwest winds continue south of the monsoon trough along with wave heights in the range of 6-8 ft due to southwesterly cross-equatorial swell. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds in the Papagayo Region will continue through the end of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between a surface ridge north of 15N and lower pressure associated with the monsoon trough as well as with the tropical wave along 138W, a trough along 127W from 08N to 16N and a 1010 mb low along the monsoon trough near 12N128W supports fresh to locally strong winds from 11N to 19N and west of about 125W. Wave heights in this region are in the 6-8 ft range. The aforementioned 1010 mb low is producing scattered moderate convection within 60 nm north and south of the monsoon trough between 127W-129W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm east of the trough from 10N to 13N. Nighttime enhanced satellite imagery shows broad cyclonic turning of low and mid-level clouds over this general area. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development of this broad area of low pressure during the next few days while it tracks generally westward according to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook. Long-period southwesterly swell dominates the waters roughly south of 10N and between 100W-116W, resulting in wave heights of 6-8 ft. These wave heights are forecast to build and gradually shift westward through the middle of the week as the Special Features broad area of low pressure continues to move westward while it becomes better organized. $$ Aguirre