000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210937 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Jun 21 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0915 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with axis along 86W north of 03N is moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave is embedded within a very moist and unstable atmospheric environment. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 120 nm west of the wave from 10N to 12N. Similar activity is over central and northern Nicaragua. A tropical wave with axis along 106W from 03N to 17N is moving westward at about 12 kt. This wave is part of a broad area of multilayer cloudiness with embedded scattered moderate to isolated strong convection that extends from 08N to 14N and between 102W and 109W. The wave axis is located where the GFS model 700 mb winds reveal a northeast to east-southeast wind shift. This area of disturbed weather has the potential for some slow development through the middle part of the upcoming week per the latest Tropical Weather Outlook. A tropical wave with axis along 113W from 03N to 17N is moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave is passing to the south of a mid to upper-level high pressure ridge. Scattered moderate isolated to strong convection is within 180 nm east of the wave axis from 08N to 12N and within 60 nm west of the wave axis from 08N to 10N. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are east of the wave from 12N to 13N between 109W-110W. A tropical wave with axis along 133W from 03N to 17N is moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm east of the wave axis from 12N to 14N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia westward to across central Costa Rica, then to 10N86W to 11N97W to 11N110W to 12N120W, to a 1011 mb low near 12N128W and to 10N136W where overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to beyond the area at 10N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 94W-98W, within 120 nm south of the trough between 107W-110W and between 125W-128W. Similar convection is within 120 nm north of trough between 122W-127W and within 30 nm of trough between 104W-107W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the trough between 135W-136W and within 30 nm south of the ITCZ. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge is building eastward to around 18N110W. The associated pressure gradient supports moderate NW winds west of Baja California. Mainly light to gentle winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail elsewhere. Moderate to fresh northwest winds will continue through early next week over the waters from Baja California Sur to Punta Eugenia. These winds should diminish slightly by mid-week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh southwest winds continue south of the monsoon trough along with wave heights in the range of 6-8 ft due to southwesterly cross-equatorial swell. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds in the Papagayo Region will continue into early part of the upcoming week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends east-southeastward from a 1025 mb high pressure centered near 32N140W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The associated pressure gradient is supporting fresh trade winds from 10N to 19N west of 120W. Wave heights are in the 6-7 ft range in this area from mixed swell. A surface trough is analyzed along 121W from 08N to 15N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted within 120 nm east of the trough near the monsoon trough. This trough is part of a broad area of low pressure. It is possible that environmental conditions could allow for some slow development of this area of disturbed weather during the next few days while it moves generally to the west. Mainly moderate northeast winds are near this trough along with wave heights in the range of 5-7 ft. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 5-7 ft wave heights are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough west of 120W. Moderate southerly flow is south of the the monsoon trough axis. Long-period southwesterly swell dominates the waters roughly south of 10N and between 99W and 110W, resulting in wave heights of 6-8 ft. These conditions are expected to change little going into early part of next week as southerly winds south of the monsoon trough increase some. $$ Aguirre