000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172140
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Jun 17 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2040 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 95W, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted N of 09N between 
88W and 98W. 

A tropical wave is along 106W, moving west 10 kt. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection is ongoing from 08N to 13.5N 
between 99W and 109W.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 123W, moving west around 10 to
15 kt. This wave is well represented in low level satellite 
derived wind fields and lower level precipitable water fields 
also. A broad area of active convection continues with this wave
as it interacts with an upper low to its northwest. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection is active behind the wave from 08N
to 14N between 114W and 121W, and within 180 nm N of the monsoon
trough between 121W and 125W. 


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
The monsoon trough extends from 10N76W to 09N87W to 13N123W to 
08.5N140W. Elsewhere outside of convection associated with 
tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is
noted N of 06.5N between 78W and 87W, while scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm S and 180 nm N
of the trough between 125W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong northerly gap winds spilling across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec the past to days have diminished to 15-20 kt this
afternoon, with associated seas now 6-7 ft. The pattern
maintaining this gap wind event has shifted SE of the area and no
signficant gap winds are expected here for the next few days. 
Brief pulses of fresh gap winds may return by late Sat. 

Farther north, a deep layer ridge west of the area is building 
eastward following a sharp trough now extending from the southern
Rockies through the central part of the Baja California Sur and  
into the open Pacific to 22N130W. This has tightened the pressure
gradient enough at the surface to support pulses of strong gap 
winds into the northern Gulf of California during the evening and
night time hours. A brief repeat of the fresh to strong winds is
expected tonight as well. The gradient will relax through late 
in the week as the ridge continues to build eastward. Meanwhile 
NW swell producing seas of 7 to 8 ft in the outer offshore waters
of Baja California Norte will subside tonight, before another 
pulse of NW swell to 8 ft will enter the waters northwest of 
Guadalupe Island by through late Wed. Looking ahead, moderate to 
fresh NW winds are possible off Baja California Sur by late week 
as a ridge builds into the area.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate SW monsoon flow prevails south of the monsoon
trough, with gentle to moderate winds to the north of the 
monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range, mainly south of
Panama. This will subside through mid week, but another round of
SW swell is expected Thu through Fri.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge extends from 1031 mb high pressure centered near 34N138W
E-SE to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between
this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ is supporting fresh trade winds from 10N to 25N west of
125W. Seas are in the 7 to 9 ft range over this area in a mix of
swell. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5 to 7 ft, prevail 
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. 
 
Moderate southerly flow prevails south of the monsoon 
trough/ITCZ. Long-period southerly swell still dominates the 
waters south of 10N and east of 110W, with 6 to 8 ft seas
prevailing. Another round of southerly swell will enter the area
late in the week.

$$
Stripling