000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160305 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 305 UTC Tue Jun 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 85W-86W, moving west at 10 kt. No significant convection is evident near the tropical wave over Pacific waters, although numerous moderate to strong convection is evident over El Salvador, southern Honduras, and northern Nicaragua. A tropical wave is along 98W, moving west near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 95W and 100W. A tropical wave is along 112W, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 15N between 113W and 118W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 12N118W to 10N125W. The ITCZ continues from 10N125W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 95W and 100W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 15N between 113W and 118W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 120W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The mid to upper level pattern remains fairly amplified. A long- wave, upper trough reaching from the NE Gulf of Mexico to the far southwest Gulf of Mexico is interacting with the tropical wave along 84W to deepen a resident trough over the Yucatan peninsula and northwest Caribbean. This is resulting in a tight pressure gradient between the trough and higher terrain over southern Mexico, allowing strong northerly gap winds to funnel across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds are pulsing, with the strongest pulses occurring during the overnight hours with the help of local drainage effects. These seas are mixing with longer period SW swell persisting in the region. This pattern will continue into mid week. By late week, the upper trough will have dampened out and moved east, allowing the gap wind flow and related seas to diminish. Farther north, another mid to upper trough reaches from the northern Rockies through southern California. Moderate to fresh southerly winds across the far northern Gulf of California will become fresh to strong westerly gap winds Tue night as the axis of the mid to upper trough shifts eastward over the area. NW swell producing seas of 6 to 7 ft persists in the outer offshore waters of Baja California Norte. This will subside through today, but another pulse of NW swell to 8 ft will enter the waters near Guadalupe Island by mid week. Looking ahead, moderate to fresh NW winds are possible off Baja California Sur by late week as a ridge builds into the area. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW monsoon flow prevails south of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate winds to the north of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range, mainly south of Panama. This will subside through mid week, but another round of SW swell is expected later in the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from 1031 mb high pressure centered near 35N146W E-SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong trade winds from 10N to 20N west of 125W. Seas are in the 7 to 9 ft range over this area. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5 to 7 ft, prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. Moderate southerly flow prevails south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. Long-period southerly swell still dominates the waters south of 10N and east of 110W, with 5 to 8 ft seas prevailing. Another round of southerly swell will enter the area late in the week. $$ Christensen