000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142040
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2040 UTC Sun Jun 14 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2040 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 89W, drifting west at 5 to 
10 kt. Scattered showers are evident within 60 nm of the wave 
axis from 06N to 10N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 104W, moving west around 
15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated convection is noted from 07N 
to 11N between 102W and 106W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from near 10N85W to 09N97W to 
12.5N110W to 10N119W. The ITCZ continues from 10N119W to 07N128W
to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted from 07N to 11N between 94W and 115W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted within 240 nm S and 90 nm N 
of the ITCZ.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure over the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre 
Oriental has weakened slightly. This has loosened the pressure
gradient over the Tehuantepec regions. The afternoon ASCAT pass 
indicated fresh to strong winds prevail over the Gulf of 
Tehuanteopec. Seas over these waters are in the 8 to 9 ft range, 
due in part to the gap winds but also a component of longer 
period southerly swell.

The pressure gradient between a ridge of high pressure, 
extending west of the Baja California peninsula, and a surface
trough over the Gulf of California is supporting moderate winds 
west of the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds 
prevail elsewhere over the forecast waters. Seas are in the 6-8 
ft range off the Baja California peninsula, 4-6 ft over the 
remainder of the open waters off Mexico, and 3 ft or less over 
the Gulf of California. 

Winds will increase once again tonight over the Tehuantepec 
region, with strong to near gale- force northerly gap winds 
persisting through the early part of the week. NW swell will 
persist off Baja California through mid week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate SW monsoon flow prevails south of the monsoon
trough, with gentle to moderate winds to the north of the 
monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range. SW swell, with 
seas to 8 ft, is moving northward off Colombia. The swell should
reach the waters off Panama over the next couple of days. 
Another set of SW swell is expected later in the week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge extends from 1029 mb high pressure centered near 34N145W
ESE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient 
between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong trade winds 
from 10N to 20N west of 135W. Seas are in the 8 to 10 ft range 
over this area. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, 
prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. 
 
Moderate southerly flow prevails south of the monsoon 
trough/ITCZ. Long-period southerly swell still dominates the 
waters south of 10N and east of 110W, with 5 to 7 ft seas
prevailing. Another round of southerly swell will enter the area
late in the week.

$$
AL