000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140814 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 814 UTC Sun Jun 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 87W, drifting west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers are evident within 60 nm east of the wave axis. The axis of a tropical wave is near 102W, moving west around 10kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm of the wave axis from 08N to 12N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near 09N84W to 08N95W to 13N112W to 11N120W. The ITCZ continues from 07N120W to 07N135W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm of the coast from Nicaragua to Oaxaca in southern Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is also noted within 60 nm of the monsoon trough axis between 98W and 116W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The combination of a wedge of high pressure over the far western Gulf of Mexico and a deep layer trough over the Yucatan is keeping the regional pressure gradient tight enough to support strong to near gale force northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the early part of the week. This was depicted well in a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas over these waters are in the 8 to 10 ft range, due in part to the gap winds but also a component of longer period southerly swell. A ship recently reported fresh NW to N winds off Baja California Norte. Stronger winds may be ongoing closer to shore this morning as well. The enhanced winds are due to a tight gradient between strong high pressure to the west, and lower pressure over the Gulf of California and northwest Mexico. These winds will diminish through the morning as a mid to upper trough supporting the low pressure moves to the east of the area. Large NW swell accompanies the fresh to strong winds. Seas 6 to 8 ft will likely persist off Baja California through mid week in a mix of NW and SW swell. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Recent scatterometer satellite data indicated gentle to moderate SW monsoon flow prevails south of the monsoon trough, with gentle E trades to the north of the monsoon trough. Clusters of mainly showers are noted near the coast from Nicaragua northward. A recent altimeter pass confirmed seas have subsided off Central America from an earlier round of large SW swell. Reinforcing SW swell with seas to 8 ft is moving northward off Colombia, and should reach the waters off Panama over the next couple of days. Another round of similar swell is expected later in the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A recent scatterometer pass indicated fresh to strong trade winds from 10N to 20N west of 135W. An earlier altimeter satellite pass indicated seas of ate least 9 ft in the area of strongest winds. These winds and seas were between 1029 mb high pressure centered near 34N142W and a trough farther south along the ITCZ at 135W. Little change is expected through Mon as the trough slowly drifts west. Farther east, moderate to locally fresh southerly flow prevails south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. Long-period southerly swell still dominates the waters south of 15N and east of 110W, with 5 to 7 ft seas south of the monsoon trough east of 110W. Another round of southerly swell will enter the area late in the week. $$ Christensen