000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140318 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 318 UTC Sun Jun 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 87W, moving west near 10 kt. No significant convection is noted near this tropical wave. The axis of a tropical wave is near 101W, moving west around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm of the wave axis from 07N to 12N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near 09N83W to 09N95W to 12N110W to 08N120W to 07N125W. The ITCZ continues from 07N125W to 08N135W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N E of 89W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 93W and 103W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection observed from 10N to 14N between 105W and 115W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The combination of a wedge of high pressure over the far western Gulf of Mexico and a deep layer trough over the Yucatan is keeping the regional pressure gradient tight enough to support strong to near gale force northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the early part of the week. Seas over these waters are in the 8 to 11 ft range, due in part to the gap winds but also a component of longer period southerly swell. High pressure extends across the offshore waters west of the Baja California peninsula. A surface trough extends across the Gulf of California. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting moderate to fresh winds over the waters west of the Baja California peninsula, with seas in the 5-7 ft range. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, prevail elsewhere across the open forecast waters. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3 ft or less prevail over the Gulf of California. The pressure gradient will tighten and strengthen winds off Baja California Norte tonight into Sunday. NW swell will propagate into the waters off Baja California Norte tonight and persist through the early part of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Earlier scatterometer satellite data indicated gentle to moderate SW monsoon flow prevails south of the monsoon trough. Long- period southerly swell persists across the offshore waters with wave heights of 6-7 ft. North of the monsoon trough, winds remain mainly gentle to moderate. Seas north of the monsoon trough are in the 5-7 ft range in southerly swell. Cross- equatorial S to SW swell will gradually subside this weekend. Another set of southerly swell will cross the region late Sun through Mon, then start to decay Tue. Another round of cross-equatorial swell move into the region later in the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends from 1029 mb high pressure centered near 33N144W to the Revillagigedo Islands. Farther south, a surface trough is analyzed along the ITCZ near 136W. The pressure gradient between this trough and the ridge to the north is supporting fresh to locally strong trade winds from 10N to 20N west of 135W. Seas are in the 8 to 10 ft range in this area. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, with seas in the 5-7 ft range. Little change is expected through the weekend as the trough moves westward along the ITCZ and supports fresh to locally strong winds and locally higher seas west of 135W. Farther east, moderate to locally fresh southerly flow prevails south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. Long-period southerly swell still dominates the waters south of 15N and east of 110W, with 6-8 ft seas south of the monsoon trough east of 110W. This swell will decay with wave heights subsiding below 8 ft tonight into Sunday. Another round of southerly swell will enter the area late in the week. $$ Christensen