000 AXPZ20 KNHC 131500 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1500 UTC Sat Jun 13 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 84W, moving west near 10 kt. No significant convection is noted near this wave. The axis of a tropical wave is near 99W, moving west around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the wave axis from 04N to 10N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near 10N85W to 10N118W. The ITCZ continues from 10N118W to 10.5N130W, it resumes from 09N135W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 12N E of 91W, from 03N to 10N between 96W and 120W, and from 05N to 10N between 130W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure extends across the Sierra Madre Oriental. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the monsoon trough in the eastern north Pacific is supporting strong to near-gale force northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas over these waters are in the 8 to 10 ft range, due in part to the gap winds but also a component of longer period southerly swell. The strong to near- gale force winds are likely to persist through early next week. High presure extends across the offshore waters west of the Baja California peninsula. A surfae trough extends across the Gulf of California. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting moderate to fresh winds over the waters west of the Baja California peninsula, with seas in the 5-6 ft range. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, prevail elsewhere across the open forecast waters. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3 ft or less prevail over the Gulf of California. The pressure gradient will tighten and strengthen winds off Baja California Norte tonight into Sunday. NW swell will propagate into the waters off Baja California Norte tonight and persist into early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate SW monsoon flow prevails south of the monsoon trough. Long- period southerly swell persists across the offshore waters with wave heights of 7-8 ft. North of the monsoon trough, winds remain mainly gentle to moderate, except for fresh winds in the Gulf of Papagayo due to enhanced gap wind flow. Seas north of the monsoon trough are in the 5-7 ft range in southerly swell. Fresh winds will pulse across the Papagayo region through early next week. Cross- equatorial S to SW swell will gradually subside this weekend. Another set of southerly swell will cross the region late Sun through Mon, then start to decay Tue. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends from 1030 mb high pressure centered near 34N147W to the Revillagigedo Islands. Farther south, a surface trough is analyzed along the ITCZ near 132W. The gradient between this trough and the ridge to the north is supporting fresh to locally strong trade winds from 10N to 20N west of 135W. Seas are estimated to be at least 9 ft in this area, in mix of swell and shorter period seas from trade winds. Gentle to moderate winds prevail north of 20N, with seas in the 5-6 ft range. Little change is expected through the weekend as the trough moves westward along the ITCZ and supports fresh to locally strong winds and locally higher seas west of 135W. Farther east, moderate to locally fresh southerly flow prevails south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. Long-period southerly swell still dominates the waters south of 15N and east of 110W, with 7-8 ft seas south of the monsoon trough east of 110W. This swell will gradually decay over the next couple days, with wave heights subsiding below 8 ft Sunday. $$ AL