711 AXPZ20 KNHC 121501 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1343 UTC Fri Jun 12 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Northerly gap winds reaching minimal gale force are pulsing into the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning, between strong high pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressure over the tropics. The winds will diminish just below gale later today, but strong to near gale- force northerly gap winds will persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through early next week. Combined seas will build to 8-12 ft by early today in mixed northerly wind waves and southerly swell. Ashfall Advisory off Ecuador: The Sangay Volcano in Ecuador is in a state of unrest. Ash from Sangay may be reaching the surface of the ocean in the Gulf of Guayaquil and adjacent offshore waters through most of today. Mariners in this area should be aware of the potential for limitations to visibility due to the ashfall. In addition, the ash may cause respiratory problems and eye irritation, and foul sea water intakes on vessels. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 79W, moving west near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection was noted within 90 NM of the wave axis. The axis of a tropical wave is near 93W, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 04N to 10N between 92W and 96W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near 10N86W to 10N120W. The ITCZ continues from 10N120W to 1011 mb low pressure near 11N131W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N E of 90W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 92W and 102W and from 06N to 11N between 110W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details about the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. A weak high pressure ridge persists across the waters north of 20N. Light to gentle winds prevail across the forecast waters under a weak pressure pattern. Wave heights are generally 4-7 ft over the offshore waters, and 3 ft or less inside the Gulf of California. Hazy conditions may linger offshore of northern Baja California Norte this morning due to smoke from nearby inland fires. Winds off Baja California will strengthen tonight into this weekend as a reinforcing high pressure ridge builds eastward over the region. A brief period of fresh SW gap winds is expected tonight over the northern Gulf of California. Increasing NW swell will build wave heights to 8-9 ft in the Baja California Norte waters this weekend. Marine conditions will improve early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh S to SW flow prevails south of the monsoon trough. Long-period southerly swell persists across the offshore waters this afternoon with wave heights of 7-9 ft between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. North of the monsoon trough, winds remain mainly light and variable and seas are running 5-7 ft in southerly swell. Cross-equatorial S to SW swell will gradually decay today. Fresh winds will pulse across the Papagayo region tonight. Wave heights will briefly subside this weekend, before another set of southerly swell crosses the region late Sun through Mon, then decaying Tue before the next set arrives later in the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad high pressure ridge remains across the forecast waters roughly north of 20N and west of 100W. Moderate to fresh trades are occurring west of 130W between the ridge and the ITCZ. A mix of NE wind waves and SE to S swell is maintaining 8 to 10 ft seas in this region. Little change is expected over the next couple days as a weak low pressure or a trough moves along the ITCZ and supports fresh to locally strong winds and locally higher seas west of 135W. Farther east, moderate to locally fresh southerly flow prevails south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. Long-period southerly swell still dominates the waters south of 15N and east of 110W, with 8-10 ft seas south of the monsoon trough between 90W and 105W. This swell will gradually decay over the next couple days, with wave heights subsiding below 8 ft by tonight. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form well south or south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Sur this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive, and any development should be slow to occur through early next week while the system moves west-northwestward. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next five days. $$ AL