000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101953 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Jun 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A gap wind event is expected later this week as a cold front crosses the western Gulf of Mexico. Strong to near gale-force northerly winds will prevail Thu night through the weekend, with pulses to gale-force expected Thu night. Combined seas will build to 8-12 ft in mixed northerly wind waves and southerly swell. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from the NW Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Honduras southward across Honduras and Nicaragua along 88W, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm W of the wave axis N of 11N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N76W to 11N88W to 11N108W to 10N124W. The ITCZ extends from 10N124W to 10N133W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 78W and 87W, from 06N to 11N between 100W and 109W, from 07N to 10N between 107W and 115W, from 07N to 11N between 119W and 124W, and from 06N to 13N between 126W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. Patchy to areas of haze may be prevalent offshore of Baja California Norte due to inland fires. A broad and weak ridge extends across the waters. Mainly gentle to moderate W-NW winds are noted by recent scatterometer data across the waters, along with 4-7 ft seas in mixed NW and SW swell, except seas of 3 ft or less inside the Gulf of California. Winds will strengthen Fri into this weekend as an enhanced pressure gradient develops between building offshore high pressure and low pressure troughing over the SW United States and NW Mexico. Increasing NW swell will build wave heights to 8-9 ft in the Baja California Norte waters this weekend. Conditions will improve early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A southerly swell event continues over the regional offshore waters. Seas remain 8-10 ft between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador, while 8 ft seas are nearing the Azuero Peninsula and the entrance to the Gulf of Panama. Winds are moderate to fresh S to SW flow S of the monsoon trough as noted by recent scatterometer data. Light to gentle, variable winds prevail N of the monsoon trough off the coast of Guatemala and El Salvador. Cross-equatorial S-SW swell will continue propagating across the region through tonight. This swell could produce hazardous surf conditions along the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica, as well as rough seas near the Azuero Peninsula and the entrance to the Gulf of Panama. Wave heights will gradually subside into this weekend, before another set of southerly swell enters the region late Sun and Sun night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends southeastward across the northern waters toward the Revillagigedo Islands. An area of fresh to locally strong trade winds was noted by recent scatterometer data W of 130W, between this ridge and the ITCZ. Seas in this region are likely 8-9 ft in mixed NE wind waves and SE to S swell. These trades are expected to diminish slightly as a weakening cold front approaches the far northern waters by early Thu. However, a small area of fresh winds and higher seas will persist west of 130W as a low pressure trough moves along the ITCZ. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh monsoon flow prevails S of the monsoon trough and E of 105W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted generally S of 10N and W of 105W. Long-period southerly swell dominates the waters S of 10N and east of 110W this afternoon, with 8-10 ft wave heights noted in recent altimeter data W of the Galapagos Islands. This swell will continue propagating northward while gradually decaying over the next couple days. An area of 8 ft seas will persist through late week between 90W and 100W in residual southerly swell and locally enhanced monsoon flow. $$ Lewitsky