000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101537 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1356 UTC Wed Jun 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A gap wind event is expected later this week as a cold front crosses the western Gulf of Mexico. Strong to near gale-force northerly winds will prevail Thu night through the weekend, with pulses to gale-force expected Thu night. Combined seas will build to 8-12 ft in mixed northerly wind waves and southerly swell. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from the NW Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Honduras southward across Honduras and Nicaragua along 87W, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm W of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N74W to 08N81W to 10N100W to 10N116W to 09N124W. The ITCZ extends from 09N124W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 09N between 77W and 80W, from 05N to 12N between 98W and 108W, from 07N to 11N between 119W and 124W, and from 07N to 12N between 127W and 133W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 80W and 85W, from 04N to 07N between 90W and 94W, and from 09N to 10N between 94W and 96W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. Patchy to areas of haze may be prevalent offshore of Baja California Norte due to inland fires. A broad and weak ridge extends across the waters. Mainly gentle to moderate W-NW winds are noted across the waters, along with 4-7 ft seas in mixed NW and SW swell, except seas of 3 ft or less inside the Gulf of California. Winds will strengthen Fri into this weekend as an enhanced pressure gradient develops between building offshore high pressure and low pressure troughing over the SW United States and NW Mexico. Increasing NW swell will build wave heights to 8-9 ft in the Baja California Norte waters this weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Patchy to areas of fog was noted offshore of Ecuador including the Gulf of Guayaquil. A southerly swell event continues over the regional offshore waters. Seas remain 8-9 ft between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador, while 6-8 ft seas are nearing the Azuero Peninsula and the entrance to the Gulf of Panama. Winds are moderate to fresh S to SW flow south of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle, variable winds prevail north of the trough off the coast of Guatemala and El Salvador. Cross-equatorial S-SW swell will continue propagating across the region through tonight. This swell could produce hazardous surf conditions along the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica, as well as rough seas near the Azuero Peninsula and the entrance to the Gulf of Panama. Wave heights will gradually subside into this weekend, before another set of southerly swell enters the region late Sun and Sun night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends southeastward across the northern waters toward the Revillagigedo Islands. A large area of fresh to locally strong trade winds is noted west of 130W, between this ridge and the ITCZ. Seas in this region are likely 8-9 ft in mixed NE wind waves and SE to S swell. These trades are expected to diminish slightly as a weakening cold front approaches the far northern waters by early Thu. However, a small area of fresh winds and higher seas will persist west of 130W as a low pressure trough moves along the ITCZ. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh monsoon flow prevails south of the monsoon trough and east of 100W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted generally south of 10N and west of 100W. Long-period southerly swell dominates the waters south of 10N and east of 120W this evening, with 8-10 ft wave heights noted in earlier altimeter data W of the Galapagos Islands. This swell will continue propagating northward while gradually decaying over the next couple days. An area of 8 ft seas will persist through late week between 90W and 100W in residual southerly swell and locally enhanced monsoon flow. $$ Lewitsky