000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100830 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0830 UTC Wed Jun 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from the western Caribbean Sea southward across Central America along 85W, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm west of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N73W to 10N90W to 13N101W to 09N115W to 11N118W to 10N130W. The ITCZ extends from 10N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 96W and 101W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 02N to 05N east of 80W, and within 180 nm south of the monsoon trough between 118W and 126W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Recent scatterometer data reveals a small area of moderate to locally fresh NW winds in the north-central Gulf of California. Moderate to locally fresh winds are also noted off the coast of Oaxaca. Gentle NW flow is occurring over the Baja California offshore waters, with moderate winds near Punta Eugenia and Los Cabos. Seas are generally 5-7 ft in NW swell west of the Baja peninsula, and 4-6 ft elsewhere in open waters. Expect diminishing offshore winds through Thu as high pressure weakens NW of the region. Winds will strengthen Fri into this weekend as an enhanced pressure gradient develops between building offshore high pressure and low pressure troughing over the SW United States and NW Mexico. Increasing NW swell will build wave heights to 8-9 ft in the Baja California Norte waters this weekend. Farther south, a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is expected later this week as a cold front crosses the western Gulf of Mexico. Strong to near gale-force northerly winds will prevail Thu night through the weekend, with pulses to gale-force expected Thu night and possibly Fri night as well. Combined seas will build to 8-12 ft in mixed northerly wind waves and southerly swell. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A southerly swell event continues over the regional offshore waters tonight. Seas remain 8-9 ft between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador, while 6-8 ft seas are nearing the Azuero Peninsula and the entrance to the Gulf of Panama. Scatterometer winds show moderate to fresh S to SW flow persists south of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle, variable winds prevail north of the trough off the coast of Guatemala and El Salvador. Cross-equatorial S-SW swell will continue propagating across the region through tonight. This swell could produce hazardous surf conditions along the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica, as well as rough seas near the Azuero Peninsula and the entrance to the Gulf of Panama. Wave heights will gradually subside into this weekend, before another set of southerly swell enters the region late Sun and Sun night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends southeastward across the northern waters toward the Revillagigedo Islands. Recent scatterometer data depicts a large area of fresh to locally strong trade winds west of 130W, between this ridge and the ITCZ. Seas in this region are likely 8-9 ft in mixed NE wind waves and SE to S swell. These trades are expected to diminish slightly as a weakening cold front approaches the far northern waters by early Thu. However, a small area of fresh winds and higher seas will persist west of 130W as a low pressure trough moves along the ITCZ. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh monsoon flow prevails south of the monsoon trough and east of 100W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted generally south of 10N and west of 100W. Long-period southerly swell dominates the waters south of 10N and east of 120W this evening, with 8-10 ft wave heights noted in earlier altimeter data west of the Galapagos Islands. This swell will continue propagating northward while gradually decaying over the next couple days. An area of 8 ft seas will persist through late week between 90W and 100W in residual southerly swell and locally enhanced monsoon flow. $$ B Reinhart