000 AXPZ20 KNHC 082211 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2210 UTC Mon Jun 8 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 14N97W to 1012 mb low pressure near 10N115W to 08N125W. The intertropical convergence zone continues from 08N125W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 08N between 89W and 92W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 106W and 111W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Recent scatterometer satellite passes indicated moderate to fresh NW winds off Baja California Norte. This confirms the tight pressure gradient between high pressure west of the area and lower pressure over northwest Mexico is weakening. These winds are expected to diminish further through the evening. NW swell associated with these winds and strong flow farther north of the past day or so will linger off Baja California waters north of Cabo San Lazaro into mid week. A scatterometer pass also indicated fresh northerly winds over the northern Gulf of California this afternoon. These winds are expected to diminish through Tue. Elsewhere gentle to moderate NW breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas persist over open waters off Mexico through mid week. Looking ahead, fresh to strong northerly gap winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu night through Fri night, with seas likely building to 10-11 ft. This gap wind event will likely be associated with a building ridge across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail across the offshore waters. Winds off western Panama and Costa Rica will increase to 15 to 20 kt during the middle of the week, then diminish again through the latter part of the week. Cros, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands by Tue night.s equatorial SW swell will continue to propagate across the region, with seas building 8-9 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands tonight into Tue. Similar wave heights, associated with the same swell event, are forecast to reach the offshore waters of West Panama and Costa Rica by Tue night into Wed, including also the Azuero Peninsula and the entrance to the Gulf of Panama. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from a high pressure of 1029 mb located near 34N131W toward Clarion Island. Recent scatterometer satellite data and observations from buoys indicate the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ continues to support an area of moderate to fresh trade winds from 10N to 20N west of 130W. Recent altimeter satellite data just to the west of this area shows seas of 8-9 ft, likely in mixed NE and SW swell. The ridge is expected to weaken into mid week ahead of an approaching cold front northwest of the discussion area. This will allow the trade winds to diminish slightly through Tue, but the development of a weak trough along the ITCZ west of 130W will keep the gradient tight enough to support fresh to locally strong trades winds between 10N and 20N west of 130W into late week, with seas 8 to 9 ft in a mix of swell and shorter period NE wind waves. Farther east, altimeter data also confirmed persistent seas to 8 or 9 ft south of 10N and east of 110W, mainly due to S to SW swell. A reinforcing group of southerly swell is approaching the equator, and will propagate across the waters south of 10N between 90W and 110W through mid week. $$ Christensen