000 AXPZ20 KNHC 072102 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2100 UTC Sun Jun 7 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 15N95W to 1008 mb low pressure near 10N112W to 07N125W. The intertropical convergence zone continues from 07N125W to 06N120W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 10N to 11N between 94W and 95W, from 08N to 11N between 105W and 120W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 05N to 07N between 130W and 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Recent ship observations and earlier scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong NW winds persisting off the coast of Baja California Norte between 1030 mb high pressure west of the area near 36N137W and 1000 mb low pressure centered just north of the area over the lower Colorado River valley. These winds are reaching minimal gale force off the coast of Southern California, propagating fresh swell into the waters off Baja California Norte as well. The winds will diminish tonight and Mon as the gradient relaxes, but the swell will persist through the early part of this week, peaking at 10 to 11 ft off Baja California Norte Mon night. Fresh northerly winds will impact the northern Gulf of California briefly on Mon, with moderate northerly winds through Tue. Moderate NW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in mixed swell persist elsewhere. This pattern will change little through mid week. Looking ahead, fresh to strong northerly gap winds will pulse through the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough extends from Panama northwestward off the coast of Central America to just off the Tehuantepec area of southern Mexico. It remains a focus of showers and thunderstorms over Panama and Costa Rica. And while moist easterly trade wind flow is supporting showers and a few thunderstorms over eastern Nicaragua and Honduras, little to no shower or thunderstorm activity is ongoing across the remainder of northern Central America. Light to gentle S to SW breezes are noted south of the monsoon trough with 5 to 7 ft seas in SW swell. The SW flow will likely increase slightly through mid week. This coincides with the arrival of more large cross-equatorial SW swell, with combined seas reaching 6 to 9 ft off Panama and Costa Rica. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A sharp upper trough reaches from southern Mexico southwestward to 05N125W. Divergence aloft on the southeast side of this trough is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms along the monsoon trough. Fairly dry air persists west of this trough, although trade wind convergence is supporting a cluster of thunderstorms along the ITCZ near 130W. A ridge extends from high pressure of 1030 mb located near 36N137W toward Baja California Sur. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ currently supports an area of fresh to strong trade winds from 10N to 20N west of 130W, with seas of 8-9 ft. Southerly swell will continue moving northward across the waters south of 10N-11N between 100W and 120W through Mon while subsiding. Another set of long period southerly swell will reach the waters south of the equator by late Mon, building seas to 8 ft. This swell event will propagate across the waters south of 10N between 90W and 115W, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands by Tue night. $$ Christensen