000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071536 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1536 UTC Sun Jun 7 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 15N94W to 1008 mb low pressure near 10N112W to 06N125W. The intertropical convergence zone continues from 06N125W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 05N to 09N between 83W and 87W, from 12N to 14N between 97W and 100W, from 07N to 11N between 110W and 115W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 04N to 06N between 129W and 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The threat of additional heavy rainfall over southern Mexico has diminished, as Tropical Storm Cristobal continues to move away from the region. A return to a more climatological monsoon trough pattern and rainfall regime is expected across southern Mexico during the next several days. A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a meandering trough over Baja California and the Gulf of California will support fresh to strong NW-N north of Cabo San Lazaro today. By tonight, the fresh to strong NW-N winds will roughly cover the waters N of 26N between Baja California and 125W. A new swell event from the NW combined with SW swell will also affect the waters N of Punta Eugenia tonight into Mon, with seas building to 9-13 ft. This swell event will propagate across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro on Mon. Winds and seas will diminish through midweek as the pressure gradient relaxes across the region. In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail. Elsewhere, light to gentle flow will continue across the remainder of the region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The threat of additional heavy rainfall over Central America has diminished, as Tropical Storm Cristobal continues moving northward across the north-central Gulf of Mexico. A return to a more climatological monsoon trough pattern and rainfall regime is expected across Central America during the next several days. The monsoon trough axis, which was drawn northward by the recent Central American Gyre event, is now analyzed across the offshore waters off southern Mexico and Central America. Gentle to moderate SW-W winds will prevail across the offshore waters, with the exception of S winds between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Cross equatorial SW swell will continue to propagate across the region, with seas building 8-9 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Mon night into Tue. Similar wave heights, associated with the same swell event, are forecast to reach the offshore waters of West Panama and Costa Rica by Tue night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from high pressure of 1029 mb located near 36N138W toward Baja California Sur. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ currently supports an area of fresh trade winds from 10N to 20N west of 130W, with seas of 8-9 ft. The aerial extent of the trades will increase some today as the high pressure center moves toward the southeast. Southerly swell will continue moving northward across the waters south of 10N-11N between 100W and 120W through Mon while subsiding. Another set of long period southerly swell will reach the waters S of the equator by late Mon, building seas to 8 ft. This swell event will propagate across the waters S of 10N between 90W and 112W, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands by Tue night. $$ Christensen