000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070743 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 632 UTC Sun Jun 7 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 13N97W to 10N105W to 09N113W to 06N123W. The ITCZ continues from 06N123W to 06N140W. A small cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is near 09N85W. Similar convection is from 08N to 10.5N between 110W and 115W. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 15N between 99W and 102W, and from 07N to 09N between 102W and 106W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The threat of additional heavy rainfall over southern Mexico has diminished, as Tropical Storm Cristobal continues to move away from the region. A return to a more climatological monsoon trough pattern and rainfall regime is expected across southern Mexico during the next several days. A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a meandering trough over Baja California and the Gulf of California will support fresh to strong NW-N north of Cabo San Lazaro today. By tonight, the fresh to strong NW-N winds will roughly cover the waters N of 26N between Baja California and 125W. A new swell event from the NW combined with SW swell will also affect the waters N of Punta Eugenia tonight into Mon, with seas building to 9-13 ft. This swell event will propagate across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro on Mon. Winds and seas will diminish through midweek as the pressure gradient relaxes across the region. In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail. Elsewhere, light to gentle flow will continue across the remainder of the region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The threat of additional heavy rainfall over Central America has diminished, as Tropical Storm Cristobal continues moving northward across the north-central Gulf of Mexico. A return to a more climatological monsoon trough pattern and rainfall regime is expected across Central America during the next several days. The monsoon trough axis, which was drawn northward by the recent Central American Gyre event, is now analyzed across the offshore waters off southern Mexico and Central America. Gentle to moderate SW-W winds will prevail across the offshore waters, with the exception of S winds between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Cross equatorial SW swell will continue to propagate across the region, with seas building 8-9 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Mon night into Tue. Seas of 8-9 ft are forecast to reach the offshore waters of West Panama and Costa Rica by Tue night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1031 mb located near 37N139W extends a ridge across the northern forecast waters to near Clarion Island. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ currently supports an area of fresh to locally strong trade winds from 12N to 17N W of 133W, with seas of 8-9 ft. The aerial extent of the trades will increase some today as the high pressure center moves toward the SE. Southerly swell will continue moving northward across the waters S of 10N-11N between 100W and 120W through Mon while subsiding. Another set of long period southerly swell will reach the waters S of the equator by late Mon, building seas to 8 ft. This swell event will propagate across the waters S of 10N between 90W and 112W, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands by Tue night. $$ GR