522 AXPZ20 KNHC 070307 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 119 UTC Sun Jun 7 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N95W to 1010 mb low pres near 09N113W to 06N123W. The ITCZ continues from 06N123W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 83W and 87W, and from 08N to 10N between 101W and 107W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convention is from 08.5N to 10N between 113W and 115W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The threat of additional heavy rainfall over southern Mexico has diminished, as Tropical Storm Cristobal continues to move away from the region. A return to a more climatological monsoon trough pattern and rainfall regime is expected across Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a meandering trough over Baja California and the Gulf of California will support fresh to strong NW-N north of Cabo San Lazaro tonight into Sun. By Sun night, the fresh to strong NW-N winds will roughly cover the waters N of 26N between Baja California and 125W. A new swell event from the NW combined with SW swell will also affect the waters N of Punta Eugenia Sun night into Mon, with seas building to 9-13 ft. This swell event will propagate across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro on Mon. Winds and seas will subside through midweek as the pressure gradient relaxes across the region. In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail. Elsewhere, light to gentle flow will continue across the rest of the region, with stronger gusts likely in ongoing monsoon trough convection SW of the Tehuantepec region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The threat of additional heavy rainfall over Central America has diminished, as Tropical Storm Cristobal continues moving northward across the north-central Gulf of Mexico. A return to a more climatological monsoon trough pattern and rainfall regime is expected across Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. The monsoon trough axis, which was drawn northward by the recent Central American Gyre event, is analyzed across the offshore waters off southern Mexico and Central America crossing western Panama. Gentle to moderate SW-W winds will prevail across the offshore waters, with S winds between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Cross equatorial SW swell will continue to propagate across the region, with seas building to 8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands late Mon into Tue. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails over the waters north of 15N and west of 120W this afternoon. Moderate NE trades continue between the ridge and the monsoon trough/ITCZ, with fresh trades and 7-9 ft seas still occurring west of 130W. Scatterometer data indicates moderate to fresh southerly flow persists south of the monsoon trough, roughly between 95W and 125W. Recent altimeter passes show wave heights to 8 ft in southerly swell south of the Equator, and generally 5-7 ft elsewhere in the waters east of 120W. The NE trades will strengthen Sun into Mon as high pressure builds north of the region. Wave heights will increase to 8 ft or greater in response to these freshening winds over the northern waters. Southerly swell will continue moving northward across the region through Sun. Larger southerly swell will build seas in the waters roughly south of 10N and east of 110W early next week. $$ GR