000 AXPZ20 KNHC 062009 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2030 UTC Sat Jun 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Heavy rainfall ending across Central America and S Mexico... The threat of additional heavy rainfall over southern Mexico and Central America is diminishing, as Tropical Storm Cristobal continues moving northward across the central Gulf of Mexico. A return to a more climatological monsoon trough pattern and rainfall regime is expected across Central America and southern Mexico. Please refer to products from your local weather service for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 15N92W to 11N96W to 08N121W. The ITCZ extends from 08N121W to 07N131W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 83W and 87W, within 150 nm north of the monsoon trough between 96W and 102W, and within 90 nm of the monsoon trough between 114W and 119W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Offshore high pressure prevails west of Baja California this afternoon. Recent scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh NW winds over the Baja offshore waters south of Cabo San Lazaro, with gentle to moderate winds northward to the Mexico border. Elsewhere, light to gentle flow continues across the rest of the region, with stronger gusts likely in ongoing monsoon trough convection SW of the Tehuantepec region. Seas are generally 5-7 ft offshore of Baja California, with 8 ft seas noted in recent altimeter data west of Guadalupe Island. High pressure will build across the forecast waters, resulting in increasing winds and seas west of Baja California through Mon. The strongest winds and highest seas are expected over the Baja California Norte waters late Sun into Mon, where wave heights are expected to reach 9-13 ft. Winds and seas will subside through midweek as the pressure gradient relaxes across the region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough axis, which was drawn northward by the recent Central American Gyre event, is analyzed across the offshore waters off southern Mexico and Guatemala this afternoon. The available scatterometer passes today reveal gentle to locally moderate monsoon flow south of the trough across the forecast waters. Wave heights have likely changed little since this morning, when altimeter data showed 6-8 ft seas offshore of El Salvador and Nicaragua. Seas remain 5-7 ft in southerly swell between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. A fresh set of long-period SW swell will propagate across the region tonight through Sun. Larger SW swell will build seas over the forecast waters late Mon night through Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails over the waters north of 15N and west of 120W this afternoon. Moderate NE trades continue between the ridge and the monsoon trough/ITCZ, with fresh trades and 7-9 ft seas still occurring west of 130W. Scatterometer data indicates moderate to fresh southerly flow persists south of the monsoon trough, roughly between 95W and 125W. Recent altimeter passes show wave heights to 8 ft in southerly swell south of the Equator, and generally 5-7 ft elsewhere in the waters east of 120W. The NE trades will strengthen Sun into Mon as high pressure builds north of the region. Wave heights will increase to 8 ft or greater in response to these freshening winds over the northern waters. Southerly swell will continue moving northward across the region through Sun. Larger southerly swell will build seas in the waters roughly south of 10N and east of 110W early next week. $$ B Reinhart