000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061523 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1520 UTC Sat Jun 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Heavy rainfall ending across Central America and S Mexico... A return to a more climatological monsoon trough pattern and rainfall regime will begin today across Central America and southern Mexico as Tropical Storm Cristobal continues moving northward over the central Gulf of Mexico. The threat of additional rainfall from Cristobal will diminish today, but life threatening flash floods and mudslides remain possible. Refer to products from your local weather service for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 15N92W to 11N100W to 08N122W. The ITCZ extends from 08N122W to 07N132W to 09N138W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm of the monsoon trough E of 100W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 60 nm of the monsoon trough between 100W and 107W, and between 112W and 117W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The strong SW winds noted overnight in the northern Gulf of California have diminished this morning. Offshore high pressure prevails west of Baja California, resulting in moderate to fresh NW winds over the adjacent waters with locally strong winds near Los Cabos. Recent altimeter data indicates 6-8 ft seas over the Baja California offshore waters. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds persist off the coast of southern Mexico, with scattered showers and thunderstorms located SW of the Tehuantepec region. Building high pressure across the forecast waters will increase winds and seas west of Baja California through Mon. Strong winds expected over the Baja California Norte waters late Sun and Sun night will build offshore seas to 8-12 ft. Winds and seas will subside through mid-week as the pressure gradient relaxes across the region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough axis remains north of its usual position this morning, approaching the coast near the Mexico/Guatemala border. Moderate SW to W monsoon flow prevails across the forecast waters. Recent altimeter data shows 6-9 ft seas offshore of Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua, likely in SW swell. Seas are generally 5-7 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. A fresh set of long-period SW swell will propagate across the region today through Sun. Larger SW swell will build seas over the forecast waters late Mon night through Wed. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge extends from near 30N140W across the northern waters toward the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge and the monsoon trough/ITCZ to the south is supporting moderate NE trades, with fresh winds noted in overnight scatterometer data north of the ITCZ west of 130W. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. The NE trades will strengthen Sun into Mon as high pressure builds north of the region. Wave heights will increase to 8 ft or greater in response to these winds over the northern waters. A set of large, long-period S swell is propagating across the southern waters this morning, with 8-9 ft seas south of the Equator and west of 105W. This swell will continue moving northward through Sun. Larger SW swell will build seas in the waters roughly south of 10N and east of 110W early next week. $$ B Reinhart