000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060305
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Jun 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Heavy rainfall across Central America and Southern Mexico...

A Central American Gyre remains centered over southern Mexico 
and northern Central America, with the broad cyclonic circulation
around the gyre encompassing the discussion waters north of 10N 
and east of 100W. The gyre is characterized by a northward 
displacement of the monsoon trough over Central America, and 
associated deep convection is usually found south of the trough 
axis.

Cristobal, now a tropical storm moving north of the Yucatan 
peninsula, is expected to move away from the larger circulation 
of the gyre, but additional heavy rainfall over portions of 
southeastern Mexico and northern Central America is possible 
through tomorrow. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected 
over the southeastern Mexican provinces of Chiapas, Yucatan, and 
Quintana Roo as well as portion of Guatemala and Belize. This 
rainfall can cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and 
mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for 
more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 15N93W to 11N100W to 10N109W. 
The ITCZ extends from 10N119W to 07N128W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 16N between 92W 
and 103W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more details on the 
Central American Gyre.

Building high pressure across the forecast area will increase 
winds and seas west of Baja California tonight through Mon. NW
winds may become strong and seas build to 12 ft on Mon.

A tight pressure gradient will support strong to near gale SW 
winds and building seas in the N Gulf of California tonight. An 
earlier scatterometer pass showed 25 kt SW winds already in the 
northern Gulf. Seas may briefly build to 9 ft overnight.

Large, long-period SW swell will impact S Mexico today and 
tomorrow morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please see the Special Features section for more details on the 
Central American Gyre.

Large, long-period SW swell propagating across the region will 
subside Sat through Mon, then build again Tue and Wed. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge of high pressure extends from 30N135W to 12N110W. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and the monsoon trough/ITCZ 
to the south is supporting gentle to moderate NE trades across 
the area. South of the monsoon trough and east of 100W, SW winds 
are generally moderate to fresh. Monsoonal SW winds will relax 
beginning Sat, while the trades will change little through Wed.

Large, long-period SW swell propagating across the region east 
of 120W will subside Sat through Mon, then build again Tue and 
Wed.

$$
Mundell