000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052133 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2112 UTC Fri Jun 5 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Heavy rainfall across Central America and Southern Mexico... A Central American Gyre remains centered over southern Mexico and northern Central America, with the broad cyclonic circulation around the gyre encompassing the discussion waters north of 10N and east of 100W. The gyre is characterized by a northward displacement of the monsoon trough over Central America, and associated deep convection is usually found south of the trough axis. Cristobal, now a tropical storm centered on the Yucatan peninsula coast, remains embedded within the larger circulation of the gyre, and will continue to produce additional heavy rainfall over portions of southeastern Mexico and northern Central America through tomorrow. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over the southeastern Mexican provinces of Chiapas, Yucatan, and Quintana Roo as well as portion of Guatemala and Belize. This rainfall can cause widespread life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Tropical Storm Cristobal near 21N90W on the Yucatan peninsula coast, then west-southwestward to a 1010 mb low at 10N118W. From there, it transitions to the ITCZ, which goes to 09N135W. A trough extends from 13N135W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 16N between 92W and 102W. Scattered moderate is noted from 07N to 10N between 112W and 115W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on the Central American Gyre. Building high pressure across the forecast area will increase winds and seas west of Baja California tonight through Mon. NW winds may become strong and seas build to 12 ft on Mon. A tight pressure gradient will support strong to near gale SW winds and building seas in the N Gulf of California through tonight. An 1804 UTC ASCAT scatterometer pass showed 25 kt SW winds had already begun in the N Gulf. Seas may briefly build to 9 ft tonight. Large, long-period SW swell will impact S Mexico today and tomorrow morning. No tropical cyclone activity is expected in the Mexican offshore zones for the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section for more details on the Central American Gyre. Large, long-period SW swell propagating across the region will subside some Sat through Mon before being enhanced again on Tue and Wed. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge of high pressure extends from 30N135W to 12N110W. The weak pressure gradient between the ridge and the monsoon trough/ITCZ to the south are forcing only gentle to moderate NE trades across the area. South of the monsoon trough and east of 100W, SW winds are generally moderate to fresh. The monsoonal SW winds will relax some beginning Sat, while the trades will change little through Wed. Large, long-period SW swell propagating across the region east of 120W will subside some Sat through Mon before being enhanced again on Tue and Wed. No tropical cyclone activity is expected in the remainder of our High Seas for the next several days. $$ Landsea