000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050311 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Jun 5 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Heavy rainfall across Central America and Southern Mexico... A Central American Gyre remains centered over southern Mexico and northern Central America, with the broad cyclonic circulation around the gyre encompassing the discussion waters N of 10N and E of 100W. The gyre is characterized by a northward displacement of the monsoon trough over Central America, and associated deep convection is usually found south of the trough axis. Cristobal, now a tropical depression over the Yucatan penisula, remains embedded within the larger circulation of the gyre, and will continue to produce additional heavy rainfall over portions of SE Mexico and northern Central America the next few days. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 14N92W to 11N100W to 1011 mb low pres near 10N115W to 09N124W. A trough extends from 12N130W to 04N138W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 89W and 108W. Numerous moderate scattered strong is noted from 13N to 16N between 92W and 97W. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is within 45 nm of the low pres centered near 10N115W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on the Central American Gyre. Moderate to fresh NW winds will prevail west of Baja California through Fri, with the exception of fresh to strong NW winds along and well offshore of the coast of Cabo San Lucas. Seas will build to 6-9 ft in mixed swell across the waters between Las Marias and Cabo San Lazaro overnight. High pressure will build across the area, producing fresh to strong NW winds over the offshore waters of Baja California Fri night and Sat, mainly S of Punta Eugenia. Seas will build to 8-9 ft with these winds. In the Gulf of California, a surface trough and tight pressure gradient will support strong winds and building seas to 6-9 ft by Fri night. The Central American Gyre will continue to produce onshore flow and active weather over the waters of southern Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, the next few days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section for more details on the Central American Gyre. Moderate to fresh onshore winds will prevail across the forecast waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Fri, with building seas of 7-9 ft in mainly SW swell. Gentle to moderate SW to W winds are expected elsewhere. Large long-period SW swell will propagate across the region through this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure NW of the area extends a ridge across the northern forecast waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Fresh trade winds are expected along the southern periphery of the ridge and north of the ITCZ during the next few days. High pressure will continue to build across the northern waters the next few days, and strengthen the trade winds S of 20N and W of 130W over the weekend. SW swell will continue to propagate across the forecast waters mainly S of 15N between 90W-120W supporting seas of 8-9 ft. Seas will gradually subside through Fri, but another large SW swell event will reach the waters S of the Equator Fri night into Sat. $$ Mundell