000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040953 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Jun 4 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0910 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Heavy rainfall across Central America and Southern Mexico... A Central American Gyre remains centered over southern Mexico and northern Central America, with the broad cyclonic circulation around the gyre encompassing the discussion waters N of 10N and E of 100W, and extending across adjacent portions of the southern Gulf of Mexico to 25N and the western Caribbean Sea to 80W. The Central America Gyre produces a northward displacement of the monsoon trough over Central America, and it is most common in late spring and early fall. The associated deep convection is usually found on the southern and eastern sides of the circulation, and is the case tonight. Currently, numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted over the Yucatan Peninsula and northern portions of Guatemala and Belize, and extends SW to the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Similar bands of convection extend across the SW Caribbean and coastal sections at Nicaragua, and across the Yucatan Channel NE to western Cuba and the Straits of Florida. T.S. Cristobal, remains inland and meanders S of Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico, embedded within the larger circulation of the gyre. Cristobal will act to focus additional heavy rainfall over portions of SE Mexico and Guatemala during the next few days. Winds flowing around the larger Central American Gyre will continue to advect abundant tropical moisture cyclonically across portions of Central America and SE Mexico for the next few days, bringing additional heavy rains to El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua. This setup will maintain a very dangerous situation for these areas. This large quasi-stationary circulation has brought heavy rainfall and severe flooding to portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the past several days, and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Guatemala and El Salvador. Additional rainfall accumulations of 10-15 inches are possible over the Mexican states of Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco and Yucatan during the next few days. The rains will lead to additional life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Please refer to products issued by your local or national meteorological service for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 15N102W to 10.5N97W to 1011 mb low pres near 11N115W. The ITCZ continues from 10N116W to 10N132W to 07N140W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection N of line from 05N83W to 05.5N90W to 12.5N98W to 16N96W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 104W to 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on the Central American Gyre. Gentle to moderate NW winds will prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California through early Sat, with the exception of fresh to strong NW winds along and well offshore of the coast of Cabo San Lucas through Sat night. Seas will build to 6-9 ft in SW swell near Los Cabos overnight, and across the waters between Las Marias and Cabo San Lazaro on Thu. As high pressure builds across the area during the upcoming weekend, expect fresh to strong northerly winds N of Punta Eugenia, and fresh winds S of Punta Eugenia. In the Gulf of California mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail, except across the northern part of the Gulf where a surface trough and tight pressure gradient will support strong winds and building seas to 6-8 ft Thu night Fri through Fri night. The Central American Gyre will continue to produce onshore flow and very active weather across the waters of southern Mexico over the next few days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section for more details on the Central American Gyre. This will continue to bring active weather across Central America. Moderate to fresh onshore winds will prevail across the forecast waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Fri, with building seas of 7-10 ft in mixed SW swell. Mainly gentle to moderate SW to W winds are expected elsewhere, with the exception of SE to S winds across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Large long-period SW swell will continue to propagate across the region through late Fri. Another round of cross equatorial SW swell is forecast to reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1030 mb located near 36N142W extends a ridge across the northern forecast waters to near 20N112W. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are expected along the southern periphery of the ridge and N of the ITCZ over the next few days. This high pressure system will continue to build across the northern waters through the week and act to strengthen the trade winds S of 20N and W of 130W over the weekend. Southerly swell will continue to propagated across the forecast waters mainly S of 15N between 90W-125W supporting seas of 8-11 ft per recent altimeter data. Seas will gradually subside Thu night through Fri, but another SW swell event will reach the waters S of the Equator Fri night into Sat. $$ Stripling