000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040336 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jun 4 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0240 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Heavy rainfall across Central America and Southern Mexico... A Central American Gyre remains centered over southern Mexico and northern Central America, with the broad cyclonic circulation around the gyre encompassing the discussion waters N of 10N and E of 100W, and extending across adjacent portions of the southern Gulf of Mexico to 25N and the western Caribbean Sea to 80W. The Central America Gyre produces a northward displacement of the monsoon trough over Central America, and it is most common in late spring and early fall. The associated deep convection is usually found on the southern and eastern sides of the circulation, and is the case tonight. Currently, numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted over SE Mexico, including the Yucatan Peninsula, the Bay of Campeche and extends SE to the north half of Guatemala and Belize. Similar bands of convection 120-150 nm wide extend across eastern Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica, as well as the SW Caribbean N of 10N. T.S. Cristobal, remains inland and meanders just S of Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico, embedded within the larger circulation of the gyre. Cristobal will act to focus additional heavy rainfall over portions of SE Mexico and Guatemala during the next few days. Winds flowing around the larger Central American Gyre will continue to advect abundant tropical moisture cyclonically across portions of Central America and SE Mexico for the next few days, bringing additional heavy rains to El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua. This setup will maintain a very dangerous situation for these areas. This large quasi-stationary circulation has brought heavy rainfall and severe flooding to portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the past several days, and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Guatemala and El Salvador. The forecast calls for rainfall amounts of 10-20 inches over the Mexican states of Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco and Yucatan, with 5-10 inches of rain possible across Veracruz and Oaxaca. The rains will lead to additional life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Please refer to products issued by your local or national meteorological service for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 15N93W to 10.5N97W to 1011 mb low pres near 11N115W. The ITCZ continues from 11N116W to 10N132W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 77W and 112W, N of 12N between 90W and 99W, and from 06N to 12N between 127W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on the Central American Gyre. Gentle to moderate NW winds will prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California through early Sat, with the exception of fresh to strong NW winds along the coast of Cabo San Lucas through Sat night. Seas will build to 6-9 ft in SW swell near Los Cabos overnight, and across the waters between Las Marias and Cabo San Lazaro on Thu. As high pressure builds across the area during the upcoming weekend, expect fresh to strong winds N of Punta Eugenia, and moderate to fresh winds S of Punta Eugenia. In the Gulf of California mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail, except across the northern part of the Gulf where a tight pressure gradient will support fresh to strong winds and building seas to 6-8 ft Thu night through Fri night. The Central American Gyre will continue to produce onshore flow and very active weather across the waters of southern Mexico over the next few days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section for more details on the Central American Gyre. This will continue to bring active weather across Central America. Moderate to fresh onshore winds will prevail across the forecast waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Fri, with building seas of 6-9 ft in strong SW swell. Mainly gentle to moderate SW to W winds are expected elsewhere, with the exception of SE to S winds across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Long-period SW swell will continue to propagate across the region through the week. Another round of cross equatorial SW swell is forecast to reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1030 mb located near 35N143W extends a ridge across the northern forecast waters to near 19N113W. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are expected along the southern periphery of the ridge and N of the ITCZ over the next few days. This high pressure system will continue to build across the northern waters through the week and act to strengthen the trade winds S of 20N and W of 130W over the weekend. Southerly swell will continue to propagated across the forecast waters mainly S of 10N-15N between 90W-125W supporting seas of 8-11 ft per recent altimeter pass. Seas will gradually subside over the next 48 hours, but another SW swell event will reach the waters S of the Equator Fri night into Sat. $$ Stripling