000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032049 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1856 UTC Wed Jun 3 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Heavy rainfall across Central America and Southern Mexico... A Central American Gyre remains centered over southern Mexico and northern Central America, with the broad cyclonic circulation around the gyre encompassing the discussion waters N of 10N and E of 100W, and extending across adjacent portions of the southern Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean Sea. The Central America Gyre produces a northward displacement of the monsoon trough over Central America, and it is most common in late spring and early fall. The associated deep convection is usually found on the southern and eastern sides of the circulation. Currently, numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted over SE Mexico, including the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche. A 90-120 nm wide-band of moderate to isolated strong convection is also noted extending SW from the coast of El Salvador to 10N95W to 09N100W. T.S. Cristobal, now inland near Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico, is embedded within the larger circulation of the gyre. Cristobal will act to focus additional heavy rainfall over portions of SE Mexico and Guatemala during the next few days. Winds flowing around the larger Central American Gyre will continue to advect abundant tropical moisture cyclonically across portions of Central America and SE Mexico for the next few days. This setup will maintain a very dangerous situation for these areas. This large quasi- stationary circulation has brought heavy rainfall and severe flooding to portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the past several days, and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Guatemala and El Salvador. The forecast calls for rainfall amounts of 10-20 inches over the Mexican states of Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco and Yucatan, with 5-10 inches of rain in Veracruz and Oaxaca. In Central America, portions of Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador and southwestern Honduras are also likely to receive additional rounds of heavy rain. The rains could lead to additional life- threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Please refer to products issued by your local or national meteorological service for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 14N94W to 1011 mb low pres near 11N115W. The ITCZ continues from 10N116W to 06N130W to 07N140W. A band of moderate to isolated strong convection extends within about 90-120 nm SE and S of a line from 13N90W to 10N95W to 10N100W to 10N105W. Similar convection is noted from 09N to 11N between 85W and 87W, including the Gulf of Papagayo, from 10N to 13N between 97W and 100W, and from 14N to 15N between 92W and 94W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on the Central American Gyre. Gentle to moderate NW winds will prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California through early Sat, with the exception of moderate to fresh NW winds along the coast of Cabo San Lucas tonight through Sat night. Seas will build to 6-8 ft in SW swell near Los Cabos by tonight, and across the waters between Las Marias and Cabo San Lazaro on Thu. As high pressure builds across the area during the upcoming weekend, expect fresh to strong winds N of Punta Eugenia, and moderate to fresh winds S of Punta Eugenia. In the Gulf of California mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail, except across the northern part of the Gulf where a tight pressure gradient will support fresh to strong winds and building seas to 6-8 ft Thu night through Fri night. The Central American Gyre will continue to produce onshore flow and very active weather across the waters of southern Mexico over the next few days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section for more details on the Central American Gyre. This will continue to bring active weather across Central America. Moderate to fresh onshore winds will prevail across the forecast waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Fri, with building seas of 6-9 ft in SW swell. Mainly gentle to moderate SW to W winds are expected elsewhere, with the exception of SE to S winds across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Long-period SW swell will continue to propagate across the region through the week. Another round of cross equatorial SW swell is forecast to reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1030 mb located near 36N141W extends a ridge across the northern forecast to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are expected along the southern periphery of the ridge and N of the ITCZ over the next few days. This system will continue to build across the northern waters through the week and act to strengthen the trade winds S of 20N and W of 130W over the weekend. Southerly swell will continue to propagated across the forecast waters mainly S of 10N-12N between 90W-120W supporting seas of 8-11 ft per recent altimeter pass. Seas will gradually subside over the next 48 hours, but another swell event will reach the waters S of the Equator Fri night into Sat. $$ GR