000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031947 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1856 UTC Wed Jun 3 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Heavy rainfall across Central America and Southern Mexico... A Central American Gyre remains centered over southern Mexico and northern Central America, with the broad cyclonic circulation around the gyre encompassing the discussion waters N of 10N and E of 100W, and extending across adjacent portions of the southern Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean Sea. The Central America Gyre produces a northward displacement of the monsoon trough over Central America, and it is most common in late spring and early fall. The associated deep convection is usually found on the southern and eastern sides of the circulation. Currently, numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted over SE Mexico, including the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche. A 90-120 nm wide-band of moderate to isolated strong convection is also noted extending SW from the coast of El Salvador to 10N95W to 09N100W. T.S. Cristobal, now inland near Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico, is embedded within the larger circulation of the gyre. Cristobal will act to focus additional heavy rainfall over portions of SE Mexico and Guatemala during the next few days. Winds flowing around the larger Central American Gyre will continue to advect abundant tropical moisture cyclonically across portions of Central America and SE Mexico for the next few days. This setup will maintain a very dangerous situation for these areas. This large quasi- stationary circulation has brought heavy rainfall and severe flooding to portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the past several days, and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Guatemala and El Salvador. The forecast calls for rainfall amounts of 10-20 inches over the Mexican states of Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco and Yucatan, with 5-10 inches of rain in Veracruz and Oaxaca. In Central America, portions of Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador and southwestern Honduras are also likely to receive additional rounds of heavy rain. The rains could lead to additional life- threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Please refer to products issued by your local or national meteorological service for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 14N94W to 1011 mb low pres near 11N115W. The ITCZ continues from 10N116W to 06N130W to 07N140W. A band of moderate to isolated strong convection extends within about 90-120 nm of a line from 13N90W to 10N95W to 10N100W to 10N105W. Similar convection is noted from 09N to 11N between 85W and 87W, including the Gulf of Papagayo, from 10N to 13N between 97W and 100W, and from 14N to 15N between 92W and 94W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on the Central American Gyre. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the open waters off Mexico, except for fresh NW winds along the coast of Cabo San Lucas. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range. Light to gentle winds prevail across the Gulf of California, where seas are in the 1-3 ft range across interior portions, and 4-5 ft across the mouth. The Central American Gyre will continue to produce onshore flow and very active weather across the waters of southern Mexico over the next few days. Elsewhere, high pressure will begin to build modestly over the northern waters of Baja this evening and then more significantly Fri through the weekend. Weak low press is expected to develop across the northern Gulf of California Fri which will produce strong SW to W winds across that area and build seas briefly to 5-8 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section for more details on the Central American Gyre. Gentle to moderate onshore winds prevail across the forecast waters. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range in SW swell across the area. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is over the offshore waters of El Salvador, with areas of moderate to isolated strong convection in a S to SW flow across the offshore waters of western Panama and Costa Rica. The Central American Gyre centered over the northern portion of Central America and southern Mexico is bringing active weather over the offshore waters from coastal Colombia NW to Guatemala, which will continue over the next few days. Elsewhere, long- period SW swell will continue propagating across the region through the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1029 mb located near 36N140W extends a ridge across the northern forecast to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are expected along the southern periphery of the ridge and N of the ITCZ over the next few days. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds will prevail S of the monsoon trough. High pres will continue to build across he northern waters through the week and act to strengthen the trade winds S of 20N and W of 130W over the weekend. Southerly swell will continue to propagated across the forecast waters mainly S of 10N-12N between 90W-120W supporting seas of 8-9 ft. Seas will gradually subside over the next 48 hours but another cross equatorial swell event will reach the waters S of the Equator Fri night into Sat. $$ GR