000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030323 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Jun 3 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0240 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Heavy rainfall across Central America and Southern Mexico... A Central American Gyre remains centered over southern Mexico and northern Central America, with the broad cyclonic circulation around the gyre encompassing the discussion waters N of 10N and E of 100W, and extending across adjacent portions of the southern Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean Sea. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted over much of these waters. Elsewhere clusters of strong thunderstorms continue to impact portions of southern Mexico from Campeche to northern Guatemala, as well as the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Pacific coastal sections of Chiapas. TS Cristobal, over the SW Gulf of Mexico, is embedded within the larger circulation of the gyre. Cristobal will act to focus additional heavy rainfall over portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala during the next few days. Winds flowing around the larger Central American Gyre will continue to advect abundant moisture cyclonically across portions of Central America and southeastern Mexico for the next few days. This setup will maintain a very dangerous situation for these areas. This large quasi-stationary circulation has brought heavy rainfall and severe flooding to portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the past several days, and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Guatemala and El Salvador. Additional heavy rainfall is expected through the remainder of the week over portions of southern Mexico from the Yucatan Peninsula through Chiapas to eastern portions of Veracruz and Oaxaca. In Central America, portions of Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador and southwestern Honduras are also likely to receive additional heavy rainfall. The rains could lead to additional life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Please refer to products issued by your local or national meteorological service for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 16N94W TO 13N95W to low pres near 09.5N115.5W TO 13N117W. The ITCZ extends from 13N118W TO 11N124W TO 13N129W TO 14N140W.Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N E of 80W, and from 06.5N to 11N between 79W and 100W. Scattered strong convection is noted N of 14N between 91W and 95.5W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07.5N to 11.5N between 100W and 117W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N W of 127W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on the Central American Gyre. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the open waters off Mexico, where seas are in the 5-7 ft range. Light to gentle winds prevail across the Gulf of California, where seas are in the 1-3 ft range across interior portions, and 4-5 ft across the mouth. The Central American Gyre will continue to produce onshore flow and very active weather across the waters of southern Mexico over the next few days. Elsewhere, high pressure will build modestly over the northern waters of of Baja by mid-week and then more significantly Fri and Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section for more details on the Central American Gyre. Gentle to moderate onshore winds prevail across the forecast waters. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range in SW swell across the area. The Central American Gyre centered over the northern portion of Central America and southern Mexico is bringing active weather over the offshore waters from coastal Colombia NW to El Salvador, which will continue over the next few days. Elsewhere, long- period SW swell will continue propagating across the region through the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails over the waters N of 20N. Gentle to moderate northerly winds prevail N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Southerly swell has propagated into the forecast waters supporting seas of 7-10 ft S of 10N between 100W and 125W. Elsewhere seas over the discussion area are in the 5-7 ft range. High pres will continue to build across the northern waters through the week. $$ Stripling