000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022052 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1821 UTC Tue Jun 2 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Heavy rainfall across Central America and Southern Mexico... A Central American Gyre remains centered over northern Central America and southern Mexico, with the broad cyclonic circulation around the gyre encompassing the discussion waters N of 10N and E of 100W, and extending across adjacent portions of the southern Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean Sea. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted over much of these waters. Elsewhere clusters of strong thunderstorms continue to impact portions of southern Mexico E of Veracruz and Oaxaca, as well as portions of Guatemala and El Salvador. TS Cristobal, over the SW Gulf of Mexico, is embedded within the larger circulation of the gyre. Cristobal will act to focus additional heavy rainfall over portions of southern Mexico the next few days. Winds flowing around the larger Central American Gyre will continue to advect abundant moisture cyclonically across portions of Central America and southeastern Mexico for the next few days. This setup will maintain a very dangerous situation for these areas. This large quasi- stationary circulation has brought heavy rainfall and severe flooding to portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the past several days, and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Guatemala and El Salvador. Additional heavy rainfall is expected through the remainder of the week over portions of southern Mexico from the Yucatan Peninsula through Chiapas to eastern portions of Veracruz and Oaxaca. In Central America, portions of Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador and southwestern Honduras are also likely to receive additional heavy rainfall. The rains could lead to additional life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Please refer to products issued by your local or national meteorological service for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 16N94W to low pres near 09N116W to 06N123W to low pres near 08N133W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted N of 00N E of 88W, Scattered moderate to strong is noted within 150 nm S of the monsoon trough E of 100W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the monsoon trough between 100W and 130W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 04N to 10N between 130W and 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on the Central American Gyre. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the open waters off Mexico, where seas are in the 5-7 ft range. Light to gentle winds prevail across the Gulf of California, where seas are in the 1-3 ft range across interior portions, and 4-5 ft across the mouth. The Central American Gyre will continue to produce onshore flow and very active weather across the waters of southern Mexico over the next few days. Elsewhere, high pressure will build modestly over the northern waters of of Baja by mid-week and then more significantly Fri and Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section for more details on the Central American Gyre. Gentle to moderate onshore winds prevail across the forecast waters. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range in SW swell across the area. The Central American Gyre centered over the northern portion of Central America and southern Mexico is bringing active weather over the offshore waters from coastal Colombia NW to El Salvador, which will continue over the next few days. Elsewhere, long- period SW swell will continue propagating across the region through the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails over the waters N of 20N. Gentle to moderate northerly winds prevail N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Southerly swell has proagated into the foeecast waters supporting seas of 7-9 ft S of 07N between 100W and 125W. Elsewhere seas over the discussion area are in the 5-7 ft range. High pres will continue to build across the northern waters through the week. $$ AL