000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021008 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Jun 2 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0840 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Heavy rainfall across Central America and Southern Mexico... A Central American Gyre centered over northern Central America and southern Mexico the past few days extends a broad cyclonic circulation around the gyre, encompassing the discussion waters N of the equator and E of 100W, and extending across adjacent portions of the southern Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh winds are noted across much of these eastern Pacific waters, with seas in the 6-8 ft range. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted N of a line from 02N79W to 13.5N97W, with the heaviest rainfall continuing across the waters and coastal zones from the Gulf of Tehuantepec to Nicaragua. Elsewhere clusters of strong thunderstorms continue to impact interior portions of the Yucatan Peninsula from Belize northwestward to the Bay of Campeche, were Tropical Depression Three is drifting westward and offshore of Campeche. Tropical Depression Three is rotating cyclonically within the larger circulation of the gyre, while the gyre has also drifted westward during the past 24 hours. This large quasi-stationary circulation has been producing periods of heavy to torrential rainfall across this region during the past 48 hours. Reports indicate that rainfall accumulations of 10-20 inches have already fallen across Pacific coastal zones from Nicaragua to Chiapas, Mexico, and where heavy rainfall persists tonight. The circulation of TD Three will will act to focus additional heavy rainfall over portions of southern Mexico and Belize tonight through Wed. Winds flowing around the Central American Gyre will continue to advect abundant moisture cyclonically across portions of Central America and southeastern Mexico for the next several days. This will maintain a very dangerous situation for these areas. Heavy rainfall has already produced flash flooding and landslides across portions of Guatemala, Belize, El Salvador, Nicaragua, and SE Mexico. Persistent active and wet weather, with periods of very heavy rainfall, is expected over these areas the next several days, with rainfall accumulations to 35 inches possible. The continued heavy rainfall will exacerbate the current situation, and create life-threatening flash floods and mudslides for locations that receive the heaviest rainfall, especially in areas of mountainous or steep terrain. Please refer to products issued by your local weather service for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 13N92W TO 11N95W TO 11N111W to low pres near 09.5N115.5W to low pres near 08.5N133W TO 07N140W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted N of line from 02N79W to 13.5N97W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06.5N to 13N between 97W and 117W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 04.5N TO 11.5N between 126W AND 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on the Central American Gyre. The circulation around the Central American Gyre continues to funnel northerly winds through the Chivela pass and across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This is producing NW gap winds of 15-25 kt across and well downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec that are feeding into a large cluster of strong thunderstorms offshore. Seas across this area are 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NW to W winds prevail across the open waters off Mexico south of Cabo Corrientes, where seas are in the 5-7 ft range. Moderate NNW winds prevail offshore of Baja California, where seas are in the 4-6 ft range. Gentle to locally moderate S winds across the Gulf of California are producing seas in the 1-3 ft range across interior portions, and 4-5 ft across the mouth. The Central American Gyre will continue to produce onshore flow and very active weather across the waters of souther Mexico through the upcoming week. Elsewhere, high pressure will build modestly over the northern waters of of Baja by mid-week and then more significantly Fri and Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section for more details on the Central American Gyre. Outside of winds and seas associated to the Central American Gyre, gentle to moderate onshore winds prevail. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range in SW swell across the area. The Central American Gyre centered over the northern portion of Central America and southern Mexico is bringing very active weather over the offshore waters from coastal Colombia NW to El Salvador, which will continue through the upcoming week. Elsewhere, long-period SW swell will continue propagating across the region through early this week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Deep layered low pressure supports a weak 1016 mb surface low centered near 26N138W, with a weak ridge to the E over the waters N of 20N. The weak pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and low pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate winds N of the monsoon trough to near 17N and W of 130W. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, except NW of the low where fresh NE winds prevail. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Seas over the discussion area are in the 5-7 ft range. The surface low will weaken today and dissipate by Wed. High pres will then build it its wake. $$ Stripling