000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020314 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Jun 2 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Heavy rainfall across Central America and Southern Mexico... A Central American Gyre is centered over northern Central America and southern Mexico, with the broad cyclonic circulation around the gyre encompassing the discussion waters N of the equator and E of 100W, and extending across adjacent portions of the southern Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh winds are noted across much of these eastern Pacific waters, with seas in the 6-9 ft range. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted across much of these waters N of 08N E of 98W, with the heaviest rainfall continuing across the near shore waters and coasts from the Gulf of Tehuantepec to NW Costa Rica. Elsewhere areas of thunderstorms continue to impact interior portions of Central America from Costa Rica northwestward to the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche. The remnant circulation of TC Amanda has rotated cyclonically within the larger circulation of the Central American Gyre, and emerged over the SW Gulf this afternoon. The remnants have organized to Tropical Depression Three. Reports indicate that SE Mexico had already received between 5-7 inches of rain for the previous 24 hours ending at 8 AM Mon morning with additional heavy rainfall continuing this afternoon and evening. The smaller circulation of TD Three will will act as a focus for additional heavy rainfall over portions of southern Mexico tonight and Tue. TD Three is embedded within the larger Central American Gyre. Winds around the gyre will continue to advect abundant moisture cyclonically across portions of Central America and southeastern Mexico for the next several days. This will maintain a dangerous situation for these areas. Heavy rainfall has already impacted portions of Guatemala, Belize, El Salvador, Nicaragua, and SE Mexico. Persistent active and wet weather, with periods of heavy rainfall, is expected over these areas the next several days. The continued heavy rainfall will exacerbate the current situation, with the potential for life-threatening flash floods and mudslides for locations that receive the heaviest rainfall, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Please refer to products issued by your local weather service for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 15.57N92W TO 12N94W TO 09N106W to low pres near 08N117W to low pres near 08N132W TO 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted N OF 06N E OF 80W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted N OF 05N between 83W AND 89W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted N OF 08N between 89W and 97W and from 07.5N TO 12N between 97W and 117W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is also noted from 05N TO 11.5N between 126W AND 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on the Central American Gyre. The circulation around the Central American Gyre is funneling northerly winds through the Chivela pass and across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This is producing NW gap winds of 15-25 kt across and well downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec that are feeding into a large cluster of strong thunderstorms offshore. Seas across this area are 6-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NW to W winds prevail across the open waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and in the 1-3 ft range over the interior Gulf of California. The Central American Gyre over the northern portion of Central America and southern Mexico is producing active weather over the southern Mexico offshore waters, which will continue through the upcoming week. Elsewhere, high pressure will build modestly over the northern waters by mid-week and then more significantly Fri and Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section for more details on the Central American Gyre. Outside of winds and seas associated to the Central American Gyre, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range in SW swell across the area. The Central American Gyre centered over the northern portion of Central America and southern Mexico is bringing active weather over the offshore waters of Central America, currently N of 08N, which will continue through the upcoming week. Elsewhere, long- period SW swell will continue propagating across the region through early this week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Low pressure is centered near 27N136W, with a weak ridge over the waters N of 20N. The weak pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and low pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate winds N of the monsoon trough to near 15N and W of 128W. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, except W of the low where moderate to fresh winds prevail. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Seas over the discussion area are in the 5-7 ft range. The surface low will weaken by Tuesday and dissipate by Wed. High pres will then build it its wake. $$ Stripling