000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010915
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Jun 1 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Heavy rainfall across Central America and Southern Mexico...

A Central American Gyre is centered over northern Central America
and southern Mexico, with the broad cyclonic circulation around 
the gyre encompassing the discussion waters N of the equator and 
E of 100W, and extending across adjacent portions of the 
southern Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean Sea. Moderate 
to strong winds are noted across much of these eastern Pacific 
waters, with seas in the 6-10 ft range. Numerous moderate and 
scattered strong convection is noted across much of these waters 
N of 10N between the Gulf of Tehuantepec and coastal Nicaragua. 
Elsewhere areas of thunderstorms continue to impact portions of 
Central America from Costa Rica northwestward to the Bay of 
Campeche. The low level circulation of Tropical Storm Amanda 
dissipated over Guatemala on Sunday, but the focused area of 
circulation within the larger Central American Gyre has led to 
torrential rainfall shifting away from interior Guatemala and 
into the Yucatan Peninsula over the past 12 hours, where 
a large cluster of torrential rainfall continue.

Winds around the gyre will continue to advect abundant moisture 
into portions of Central America and southeastern Mexico for the 
next several days. This will maintain a dangerous situation for 
these areas. Heavy rainfall has already impacted portions of 
Guatemala, Belize, El Salvador, western Honduras, western 
Nicaragua, and portions of southern Mexico from Veracruz eastward
to Quintana Roo. Persistent active and wet weather, with periods
of heavy rainfall, is expected over these areas the next several
days. The continued heavy rainfall will exacerbate the current 
situation, with the potential for life-threatening flash floods 
and mudslides for locations that receive the heaviest rainfall, 
especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Please refer to 
products issued by your local weather service for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from the low pressure near 17N90W to 
14N92W to low pres near 08N120W to low pres near 08.5N132W TO 
08N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted N of 
05N between 81W and 86W and from 07N to 12 between 91W and 107W.
Scattered to numerous moderate scattered strong convection is 
noted N of 11.5N between 86W and 95W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 05.5N to 10N between
107W and 140W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more details on the 
Central American Gyre.

The circulation around the Central American Gyre is funneling
northerly winds through the Chivela pass across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. This is producing NW gap winds of 20-25 kt across 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec that are feeding into a large cluster of 
strong thunderstorms offshore. Winds over the Tehuantepec region 
will gradually diminish below 20 kt on Monday evening.

Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NW to W winds prevail across the 
open waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the 
open waters off Mexico, and in the 1-3 ft range over the interior 
Gulf of California.

The Central American Gyre over the northern portion of Central 
America and southern Mexico is producing active weather over the
southern Mexico offshore waters, which will continue through the
upcoming week. Elsewhere, high pressure will build modestly over
the northern waters by mid-week and then further Thu and Fri. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please see the Special Features section for more details on the 
Central American Gyre.

Outside of winds and seas associated to the Central American 
Gyre, moderate to fresh S to SW winds prevail N of 02N, and 
gentle to moderate winds S of 02N. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range 
across the area.

The Central American Gyre is centered over the northern portion 
of Central America and southern Mexico. This feature is bringing 
active weather over the offshore waters of Central America,
currently N of 08N, which will continue through the upcoming 
week. Elsewhere, long-period SW swell will continue propagating 
across the region through early next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure extends from offshore of northern California 
across the northeastern waters. The pressure gradient between the
area of high pressure and low pressure within the monsoon trough
is supporting moderate winds N of the monsoon trough to near 20N
and W of 125W. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere N of the 
monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh southerly winds prevail S of 
the monsoon trough between 103W and 121W, where seas are 7-8 ft. 
Light to gentle southerly winds prevail elsewhere W of 121W. Seas
over the discussion area are in the 5-7 ft range.

High pressure will weaken slightly through Mon. A surface low 
is drifting into the far NW portion of the discussion waters 
where it will weaken by Tuesday and dissipate by Wed. High pres 
will then build it its wake. 

$$
Stripling