000 AXPZ20 KNHC 312107 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1859 UTC Sun May 31 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Heavy rainfall in Central America... A Central American Gyre is centered over northern Central America and southern Mexico, with the broad cyclonic circulation around the gyre encompassing the discussion waters N of the equator and E of 100W. Moderate to strong winds are noted across much of these waters, with seas in the 6-10 ft range. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted across much of these waters. Areas of thunderstorms continue to impact portions of Central America from Nicaragua northwestward to Southern Mexico. The low level circulation of Tropical Storm Amanda has dissipated over Guatemala today, but the focused area of circulation within the larger Central American Gyre has led to torrential rainfall over portions of Guatemala and El Salvador over the past 12 to 24 hours. Winds around the gyre will continue to advect abundant moisture into portions of Central America and southeastern Mexico for the next several days. This will maintain a dangerous situation for these areas. Heavy rainfall has already impacted portions of Guatemala, Belize, El Salvador, western Honduras, western Nicaragua, and portions of southern Mexico E of Veracruz and eastern Oaxaca. A continued period of active and wet weather, with periods of heavy rainfall, is expected over these areas the next several days. The continued heavy rainfall will exacerbate the current situation, with the potential for life- threatening flash floods and mudslides for locations that receive the heaviest rainfall, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Please refer to products issued by your local weather service for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 15N93W to low pres near 07N120W to low pres near 09.5N131W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted N of 00N E of 86W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted N of 05N between 86W and 97W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 97W and 122W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 09N W of 122W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on the Central American Gyre. The circulation around the Central American Gyre is funneling winds through the Chivela pass into to Gulf of Tehuantepec. This is producing gap winds to just below gale force across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds over the Tehuantepec region will gradually diminish below 25 kt by early Monday. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds prevail across the open waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and in the 1-3 ft range over the Gulf of California. The Central American Gyre is centered over the northern portion of Central America and southern Mexico. This feature is bringing active weather over the southern Mexico offshore waters, which will continue through the upcoming week. Strong winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will persist through tonight. Elsewhere, high pressure will build over the northern waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section for more details on the Central American Gyre. Outside of winds and seas associated to the Central American Gyre, moderate to fresh winds prevail N of 02N, and gentle to moderate winds S of 02N. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range across the area. The Central American Gyre is centered over the northern portion of Central America and southern Mexico. This feature is bringing active weather over the offshore waters of Central America, which will continue through the upcoming week. Elsewhere, long-period SW swell will continue propagating across the region through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails across the northern waters. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and low pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to locally fresh winds N of the monsoon trough to near 15N and W of 120W. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh southerly winds prevail S of the monsoon trough between 103W and 121W, where seas are 7-8 ft. Light to gentle southerly winds prevail elsewhere W of 121W. Seas over the discussion area are in the 5-7 ft range. The area of high pressure will weaken slightly through Mon. A surface low will drift into the far NW portion of the discussion waters into Monday. The low will weaken into a trough by Tuesday and dissipate by Wed. High pres will then build it its wake. $$ AL