000 AXPZ20 KNHC 302107 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1824 UTC Sat May 30 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Heavy rainfall in Central America... A Central American Gyre is over the eastern North Pacific, with the broad cyclonic circulation around the gyre encompassing the discussion waters N of the equator and E of 100W, including portions of southern Mexico and Central America. Moderate to strong winds are noted across much of these waters, with seas in the 6-9 ft range. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted across much of these waters, particularly N of 06N between 86W and 96W. Areas of thunderstorms are impacting portions of Central America from the W part of Nicaragua northward to Southern Mexico. The gyre will move slowly northward, gradually encompassing much of Central America and southern Mexico within the next 24-48 hours. Winds around the gyre will continue to advect abundant moisture into portions of Central America and southeastern Mexico for the next several days. This will create a dangerous situation for these areas with an extended period of active weather, and periods of heavy rainfall, through the weekend and into next week, especially over southern Guatemala, El Salvador, southern Honduras, western Nicaragua, and portions of southern Mexico E of Veracruz and eastern Oaxaca. This will bring the potential for life- threatening flash floods and mudslides for locations that receive the heaviest rainfall, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Please refer to products issued by your local weather service for more details. Tropical cyclogenesis is possible in association with Central American Gyres, and a depression (TD Two-E) has developed within the gyre circulation. The depression will move inland over Guatemala Sunday and dissipate Sun night. However, the larger threat will continue to be the Central American Gyre, which will linger across Central America and southern Mexico well after the TD dissipates. ...Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning... The pressure gradient between a ridge of high pressure along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental and the Central American Gyre is producing gap winds of 30 kt as depicted by the latest ASCAT pass. With little change in the synoptic environment, and the added component of nocturnal drainage flow, winds will briefly increase to gale force tonight over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The area of high pressure will weaken enough to diminish winds below gale force Sunday. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to TD Two-E near 12N91W to low pres near 08N118W to low pres near 10N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted N of 04N E of 86W. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted N of 06N between 86W and 96W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 04N to 10N between 96W and 120W. Scattered moderate convection from 05N to 10N between 120W and 130W, and from 08N to 10N between 130W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on the Central American Gyre, and embedded TD Two-E, as well as the gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Outside of the winds and seas associated to those features, moderate to fresh winds prevail off Baja California Norte as well as just off Cabo San Lucas. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere off Baja California Sur, and light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and in the 1-3 ft range over the Gulf of California. The Central American Gyre is progressing across the forecast waters toward the northern portion of Central America and southern Mexico. TD Two-E has developed within the gyre circulation. The depression will move inland over Guatemala on Sunday. These features will bring active weather over southern Mexico offshore waters this weekend into early next week. In addition, there will be a brief period of gale force winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight. Elsewhere, high pressure will build over the northern waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section for more details on the Central American Gyre, and embedded TD Two-E. Outside of winds and seas associated to the Central American Gyre and TD Two-E, moderate to fresh winds prevail N of 02N, and gentle to moderate winds S of 02N. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range prevail across the area. The Central American Gyre is progressing across the forecast waters toward the northern portion of Central America and southern Mexico. TD Two-E has developed within the gyre circulation. The depression will move inland over Guatemala on Sunday. Hazardous marine conditions will prevail over the forecast waters west of Costa Rica and northward to Guatemala through early next week, with large clusters of thunderstorms, fresh to strong winds, and building seas. Elsewhere, long- period SW swell will continue propagating across the region through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure has started to slowly build across the northern waters. The pressure gradient between the building high pressure and low pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to locally fresh winds N of the monsoon trough to near 12N and W of 125W. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh southerly winds prevail S of the monsoon trough E of 120W, and light to gentle southerly winds prevail W of 120W. Seas over the discussion area are in the 5-7 ft range. A high pressure ridge will continue to build across the northern waters this weekend, with little change in marine conditions expected over these outer waters over the next couple days. $$ AL