000 AXPZ20 KNHC 301516 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1350 UTC Sat May 30 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A Central American Gyre is over the eastern North Pacific, with the broad cyclonic circulation around the gyre encompassing the discussion waters N of the equator and E of 100W, including portions of southeast Mexico and Central America. Moderate to strong winds are noted across much of these waters, with seas in the 6-9 ft range. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted across much of these waters, particularly N of 09N and E of 95W. Areas of thunderstorms have moved into portions of Central America from the NW part of Nicaragua northward to Southern Mexico. The gyre will move slowly northward, gradually encompassing much of Central America and southern Mexico over the next 24-48 hours. Winds around the gyre will continue to advect abundant moisture into portions of Central America and southeastern Mexico for the next several days. This will create a dangerous situation for these areas with an extended period of active weather, and periods of heavy rainfall, through the weekend and into next week, especially over southern Guatemala, El Salvador, southern Honduras, western Nicaragua, and portions of southern Mexico E of Veracruz and eastern Oaxaca. This will bring the potential for life- threatening flash floods and mudslides for locations that receive the heaviest rainfall, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Please refer to products issued by your local weather service for more details. Tropical cyclogenesis is also possible in association with this Central American Gyre. There is currently a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within the gyre over the eastern Pacific waters during the next couple of days, and a high chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next five days. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N86W to low pres near 12N91W to 07N112W to low pres near 10N130W to 08N140W. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted N of 04N E of 96W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 05N to 10N between 96W and 130W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 08N to 10N W of 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on the Central American Gyre, as well as the potential for tropical cyclone formation offshore of southern Mexico and Central America. Outside of the winds associated to the Central American Gyre, gentle to moderate winds prevail over the open waters off Mexico. Light to gentle winds prevail over the Gulf of California. Seas of 5-7 ft continue over the open waters off Mexico, and in the 1-3 ft range over the Gulf of California. The Central American Gyre over the eastern Pacific will shift slowly northward and toward southern Mexico and Central America. The feature will produce increased winds and seas and active weather over southern Mexico offshore waters this weekend. There is a chance for tropical cyclone formation offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador this weekend within the gyre. Strong to near gale-force N winds are expected this weekend over the Tehuantepec region in association with this. Elsewhere, high pressure will build over the northern waters tonight into the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section for more details on the Central American Gyre, as well as the potential for tropical cyclone formation offshore of Central America. Outside of winds and seas associated to the Central American Gyre, gentle to moderate winds and seas in the 5-7 ft range prevail across the area. Hazardous marine conditions will prevail into early next week as a long fetch of strong SW to S winds and associated seas increase over the offshore waters, in association with the Central American Gyre. There is a chance for a tropical depression to form within the gyre this weekend offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador and drift northward. Long-period SW swell will continue propagating across the region through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Deep layered low pressure across northern portions has started to weaken, with high pressure slowly starting to build across the northern waters. The pressure gradient between the building high pressure and low pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the monsoon trough to near 15N and W of 125W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Seas over the discussion area are in the 5-7 ft range. A high pressure ridge will continue to build across the northern waters this weekend, with little change in marine conditions expected over these outer waters over the next couple days. $$ AL