000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300316 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 301 UTC Sat May 30 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0240 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A Central American Gyre is over the eastern North Pacific, with the broad cyclonic circulation around the gyre encompassing the discussion waters N of the equator and E of 100W, including portions of southeast Mexico and Central America. Moderate to strong winds are noted across much of these waters, with seas in the 6-9 ft range. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted across the waters from 04N to 14N between 85W and 100W in association with the gyre. The gyre will move northward, gradually encompassing all of Central America and southern Mexico this weekend. This will advect abundant moisture into portions of Central America through the weekend and into next week. Heavy rainfall is expected over portions of Central America and southern Mexico, especially over southern Guatemala, El Salvador, southern Honduras, and western Nicaragua. This will bring the potential for life-threatening flash floods and mudslides for locations that receive the heaviest rainfall, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Please refer to products issued by your local weather service for more details. Tropical cyclogenesis is also possible in association with this Central American Gyre. There is currently a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within the gyre over the next couple of days, and a high chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next five days. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N77W to low pres near 11.5N91.5W to low pres near 09N121.5W to low pres near 09N135W TO 07N140W. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted over the discussion waters from 04N TO 14N between 85W AND 100W, and from 04.5N TO 10N between 100W AND 115W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection noted from 02N TO 08N east of 81.5W, and from 05N TO 12N west of 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on the Central American Gyre, as well as the potential for tropical cyclone formation offshore of southern Mexico and Central America. Outside of the winds associated to the Central American Gyre, gentle to moderate winds prevail over the open waters off Mexico. Light to gentle winds prevail over the Gulf of California. Seas of 5-7 ft continue over the open waters off Mexico, and in the 1-3 ft range over the Gulf of California. The Central American Gyre over the eastern Pacific will shift toward southern Mexico and Central America. The feature will produce increased winds and seas and active weather over southern Mexico offshore waters this weekend. There is a chance for tropical cyclone formation offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador this weekend within the gyre. Strong to near gale-force N winds are expected this weekend over the Tehuantepec region in association with this. Elsewhere, high pressure will build over the northern waters tonight into the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section for more details on the Central American Gyre, as well as the potential for tropical cyclone formation offshore of Central America. Hazardous marine conditions will prevail into early next week as a long fetch of strong SW winds and high seas increase over the offshore waters, in association with a Central American Gyre. There is a chance for a tropical depression to form within the gyre this weekend offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador and drift northward. Long-period SW swell will continue propagating across the region through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Deep layered low pressure across northern portions supports a weak 1014 mb low pressure analyzed near 34N125W, with a surface trough extending from the low south then southwest to near to 20N131W. Moderate to locally fresh NNE winds prevails N of 26N to the west of the low, where wave heights are 7-8 ft. Elsewhere gentle to locally moderate NE trades prevail N of the monsoon trough to 20N. A high pressure ridge will build across the northern waters this weekend. Otherwise, little change in marine conditions is expected over these outer waters over the next couple days. $$ Stripling