000 AXPZ20 KNHC 291513 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1402 UTC Fri May 29 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A Central American Gyre has developed in the eastern North Pacific, with the broad cyclonic circulation around the gyre encompassing the discussion waters N of the equator and E of 100W. Moderate to strong winds are noted across much of these waters, with seas in the 6-9 ft range. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted across the waters N of 03N and E of 94W in association with the gyre. The gyre will move northward, gradually encompassing Central America and southern Mexico. This will advect abundant moisture into portions of Central America through the weekend and into next week. Heavy rainfall is expected over portions of Central America and southern Mexico, especially over southern Guatemala, El Salvador, southern Honduras, and western Nicaragua. This will bring the potential for life-threatening flash floods and mudslides for locations that receive the heaviest rainfall, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Please refer to products issued by your local weather service for more details. Tropical cyclogenesis is possible in association with this Central American Gyre. There is currently a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within the gyre over the next couple of days, and a high chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next five days. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to low pres near 11N92W to 09N115W to low pres near 09N124W to low pres near 08N135W to 07N140W. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted from 03N to the coasts between 79W and 94W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection noted from 03N to 10N between 97W and 130W, and from 06.5N to 11N W of 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on the Central American Gyre, as well as the potential for tropical cyclone formation offshore of southern Mexico and Central America. Outside of the winds associated to the Central American Gyre, gentle to moderate winds prevail over the open waters off Mexico. Light to gentle winds prevail over the Gulf of California. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail over the open waters off Mexico, and in the 1-3 ft range over the Gulf of California. The Central American Gyre over the eastern Pacific will shift toward southern Mexico and Central America. The feature will produce increased winds and seas and active weather over southern Mexico offshore waters this weekend. There is a chance for tropical cyclone formation offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador this weekend within the gyre. Strong to near gale-force N winds are expected this weekend over the Tehuantepec region in association with this. Elsewhere, high pressure will build over the northern waters Fri night into the weekend, resulting in moderate to fresh NW winds off the coast of Baja California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section for more details on the Central American Gyre, as well as the potential for tropical cyclone formation offshore of Central America. Hazardous marine conditions will prevail into early next week as winds and seas increase over the offshore waters, in association with a Central American Gyre. There is a chance for a tropical depression to form within the gyre this weekend offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador and drift northward. Long- period SW swell will continue propagating across the region through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Deep layered low pressure across northern portions supports a weak 1014 mb low pressure is analyzed near 29N127W, with a surface trough extending from the low south then southwest to near to 20N130W. Moderate to fresh NNE winds prevails N of 25N to the west of the low, where wave heights are up to 7 ft. Elsewhere gentle to locally moderate NE trades prevail N of the monsoon trough to 20N. A high pressure ridge will build across the northern waters this weekend. Otherwise, little change in marine conditions is expected over these outer waters over the next couple days. $$ AL