000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271520
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1520 UTC Wed May 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 88W north of 07N, moving 
west around 10 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
noted within 240 nm of the wave axis.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 106W north of 04N, moving 
west around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 07N to 11N within 180 nm east of the wave axis. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 07N83W to 12N100W to
1010 mb low pressure near 11N105W to 08N137W. The ITCZ extends
from 08N137W to beyond 08N140W. Numerous moderate scattered
strong convection is occurring within 180 nm of the monsoon
trough east of 83W, and within 240 nm N of the monsoon trough 
between 83W and 95W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
within 120 nm of the monsoon trough between 117W and 127W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure pattern is analyzed across the region, with 
light NW winds offshore of Baja California and along the coast of
southern Mexico. Overnight altimeter data shows 4-6 ft seas south
of Baja California Sur, with 2-4 ft seas in the southern Gulf of
California.

Long-period S to SW swell will continue propagating across the 
offshore waters through the weekend. A broad area of low 
pressure is expected to form by late this week offshore of 
southern Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this 
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this 
week or over the weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Widespread moderate to strong convection continues N of 04N along
an active monsoon trough. Note that gusty winds and locally 
rough seas are expected in and near stronger thunderstorms.
Otherwise, moderate to fresh SW monsoon flow prevails south of 
the trough, with seas generally 4-7 ft. 

Monsoon flow will strengthen late this week as broad low 
pressure forms offshore of southern Mexico, Guatemala, and El 
Salvador. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual 
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late 
this week or over the weekend. Expect increasing winds and seas, 
along with gusty showers and thunderstorms, over the offshore 
waters late this week and into the weekend. Long-period SW swell
will continue propagating across the region through the weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak low pressure system is analyzed near 25N131W this morning.
Overnight scatterometer data shows fresh winds between this low
and 1024 mb high pressure near 35N139W, while a 1130 UTC 
altimeter pass depicts seas to 8-9 ft in this region. Elsewhere,
gentle to locally moderate winds are noted on either side of the
monsoon trough/ITCZ W of 115W. A 1010 mb low pressure is analyzed
along the monsoon trough near 11N105W, and moderate to fresh
winds continue south of the low with 8-10 ft seas. Southerly
swell supports 8-9 ft seas south of the Equator, generally W of
100W. 

Low pressure near 25N131W will remain nearly stationary over the
northern waters for the next couple days. Broad low pressure will
develop over the far eastern Pacific late this week through the
weekend, with possible tropical cyclone development impacting the
southern Mexico or Central America offshore waters.

$$
B Reinhart