000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270936 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 727 UTC Wed May 27 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0915 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed along 87W and north of 07N, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted along the wave axis and inland over portions Central America. The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed along 105W from 05N-16N, moving west around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N-12N between 103W-109W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N79W to 11N95W to 13N101W to 11N106W to a 1012 mb low near 10N130W. The ITCZ continues from that point to beyond 08N140W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection from 05N-14N and E of 96W. Scattered showers prevail from 07N-12N between 96W-119W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Light to gentle NW winds prevail over the Baja California offshore waters between a weakening offshore high pressure ridge and low pressure over inland Mexico. Gentle to moderate SE winds are noted over the southern Gulf of California area, while light winds prevail over the northern portion. Farther south, latest scatterometer data continues to show gentle to moderate N winds offshore of southern Mexico, north of the monsoon trough. Seas remain in the 4-6 ft range across much of the forecast area, with 6-7 ft seas in SW swell south of the Tehuantepec region. Little change in marine conditions is expected over the next couple days as offshore high pressure weakens. Long-period SW swell will continue propagating across the offshore waters through the weekend. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days offshore of southern Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Satellite imagery continues to show the monsoon trough fairly active near Central America and adjacent waters, mainly east of 96W. Recent scatterometer data depics moderate to locally fresh monsoonal flow across the area. Seas are generally 4-7 ft across the region. Monsoon flow will strengthen later this week as broad low pressure is expected to form offshore of southern Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend. Expect increasing winds and seas, along with gusty showers and thunderstorms, over the offshore waters late this week and into the weekend. Long-period SW swell will continue propagating across the region for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... An upper-level low pressure system is centered near 25N131W. A 1025 mb surface high is centered near 37N138W. The pressure gradient between this feature and lower pressures south of it is supporting moderate to fresh winds north of 24N between 128W- 140W. A 1012 mb surface low is centered along the monsoon trough near 10N130W. Gentle to moderate trades prevail W of 120W between a weak high pressure ridge and the ITCZ/monsoon trough. Seas in this region are up to 7 ft in combined wind waves and SW swell. Elsewhere, seas 8 ft or greater are noted south of the Equator W of 100W. A surface trough/weak low will develop along 130W and north of 25N for the next couple days, with fresh winds and seas to 7 ft over the far NW portion. The low pressure along the monsoon trough will continue in the area over the next few days. $$ ERA