000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270328 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 106 UTC Wed May 27 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed along 85W and north of 06N, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted along the wave axis and inland over portions Central America. The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed along 102W from 05N-16N, moving west around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the wave's axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N79W to 13N100W to 1011 mb low near 10N105W to another 1011 mb low near 11N126W to 10N131W. The ITCZ extends from 10N131W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection from 06N-13N between 87W-100W and within low along 105W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Light to gentle NW winds prevail over the Baja California offshore waters between a weakening offshore high pressure ridge and low pressure over inland Mexico. Light to gentle SE winds are noted over the Gulf of California. Farther south, latest scatterometer data continues to show gentle to moderate N winds offshore of southern Mexico, north of the monsoon trough. Seas remain in the 4-6 ft range across much of the forecast area, with 6-7 ft seas in SW swell south of the Tehuantepec region. Little change in marine conditions is expected over the next couple days as offshore high pressure weakens. Long-period SW swell will continue propagating across the offshore waters through the weekend. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days offshore of southern Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Satellite imagery and GOES-16 lightning data show the monsoon trough remains active this afternoon, with the strongest showers and thunderstorms located offshore of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. Recent scatterometer data shows generally moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough, with light and variable winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are generally 4-7 ft across the region in SW swell. Gentle to moderate monsoon flow will strengthen later this week as broad low pressure is expected to form offshore of southern Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend. Expect increasing winds and seas, along with gusty showers and thunderstorms, over the offshore waters late this week and into the weekend. Long-period SW swell will continue propagating across the region for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... An upper-level low pressure system centered near 25N131W has induced a surface trough over the northern waters, per recent scatterometer data. Moderate to fresh winds are noted with this feature over the waters N of 28N W of 130W. Gentle to moderate trades continue W of 125W between a weak high pressure ridge and the ITCZ/monsoon trough. A broad area of fresh winds is located SE of low pressure analyzed along the monsoon trough near 10N105W. Seas in this region are up to 9 ft in combined wind waves and SW swell. Elsewhere, seas 8 ft or greater are noted south of the Equator W of 100W. A trough or weak surface low will remain nearly stationary along 130W and north oh 25N for the next couple days, with fresh winds and seas to 8 ft over the far NW portion. The low pressure along the monsoon trough will drift NE over the next day or so, then become absorbed into a broader cyclonic circulation later this week over the eastern Pacific. $$ ERA